瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251208

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market has sufficient supply as the inspection volume of new cotton has exceeded 4.6 million tons and port cotton stocks remain high. The import quota for this year is almost used up, and the export volume of RMB is limited, resulting in more imports than exports at cotton ports. The inventory at major import cotton ports has reached a five - month high. - The downstream demand is relatively differentiated. The demand for high - count yarn has improved, which boosts the cotton market to some extent. Overall, although there is a marginal improvement in demand, the supply is still abundant, limiting the rebound of cotton prices. Attention should be paid to new driving factors in the later stage. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,980 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton). - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 130,475 hands (up 300 hands), and cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 318 hands (up 39 hands). - Cotton main contract positions are 489,062 hands (down 8,717 hands), and cotton yarn main contract positions are 16,063 hands (up 745 hands). - Cotton warehouse receipts are 2,753 sheets (up 44 sheets), and cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 13 sheets (up 1 sheet). - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,009 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan/ton), and China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,800 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/ton). [2] 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,853 yuan/ton (down 67 yuan/ton), and the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,053 yuan/ton (up 74 yuan/ton). - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tax) is 13,880 yuan/ton (down 48 yuan/ton), and the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,227 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton). [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares (up 48.3 thousand hectares), and the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons (up 0.54 million tons). [2] Industrial Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,791 yuan/ton (up 43 yuan/ton), and the national industrial inventory of cotton is 850,000 tons (up 65,000 tons). - The monthly import volume of cotton is 90,000 tons (down 10,000 tons), and the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 140,000 tons (up 10,000 tons). - The daily profit of imported cotton is 1,142 yuan/ton (up 72 yuan/ton), and the national commercial inventory of cotton is 2.9306 million tons (up 1.9089 million tons). [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 26.12 days (up 1.27 days), and the inventory days of grey cloth are 31.97 days (up 0.85 days). - The monthly output of cloth is 2.62 billion meters (down 0.18 billion meters), and the monthly output of yarn is 2.001 million tons (down 0.073 million tons). - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 110,034,804,300 US dollars (down 14,497,665,700 US dollars), and the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 112,584,189,200 US dollars (down 7,080,970,800 US dollars). [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 7.42% (down 4.92%), and the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 7.42% (down 4.92%). - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.78% (up 0.07%), and the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.64% (up 0.01%). [2] Industry News - The national commercial inventory of cotton is increasing. As of December 5, 2025, the total commercial inventory of cotton is 4.465 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 285,600 tons (a 6.83% increase). Among them, the commercial inventory of cotton in Xinjiang is 3.8859 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 269,500 tons (a 7.45% increase), and the commercial inventory of cotton in the inland area is 191,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,800 tons (a 4.82% increase). - According to the USDA report, from October 17 - 23, 2025, the net export signing volume of US upland cotton for the 2025/26 season is 30,100 tons, a 24.4% decrease from the previous week and a 22.9% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The shipment volume of US upland cotton for the 2025/26 season is 39,600 tons, a 9.4% increase from the previous week and a 21.5% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. [2]