瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the HC2605 contract decreased in price with increasing positions. The Ministry of Commerce will promote the consumption of large - scale durable goods, reform the automobile circulation and consumption, and promote the renewal of home appliances. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly with a capacity utilization rate of 80.29%. Apparent demand declined and inventory changed little. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils declined, while production remained relatively high, and inventory reduction was hindered. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro factors on steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. It is recommended for short - term trading with risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,291 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2] - HC main contract position: 1,078,676 lots, up 11,932 lots [2] - Net position of the top 20 in HC contracts: - 29,899 lots, up 31,899 lots [2] - HC1 - 5 contract spread: - 1 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] - HC warehouse receipts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange: 141,632 tons, down 300 tons [2] - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 168 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - HC main contract basis: 19 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: 0 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 786 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan [2] - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,710 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,950 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2] - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 152.9634 million tons, up 0.9027 million tons [2] - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 444,500 tons, down 5,000 tons [2] - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.2525 million tons, down 2,800 tons [2] - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1325 million tons, down 15,100 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 80.14%, down 0.93% [2] - 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 87.06%, down 0.90% [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 3.1431 million tons, down 47,000 tons [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 80.29%, down 1.20% [2] - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil inventory: 799,200 tons, up 19,000 tons [2] - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 3.2043 million tons, down 24,500 tons [2] - Domestic crude steel output: 72 million tons, down 1.49 million tons [2] - Steel net export volume: 9.484 million tons, up 204,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 3.3587 million vehicles, up 82,900 vehicles [2] - Automobile sales: 3.3221 million vehicles, up 95,700 vehicles [2] - Air - conditioner production: 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [2] - Household refrigerator production: 8.788 million units, down 1.3396 million units [2] - Household washing machine production: 11.035 million units, down 749,900 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China exported 9.98 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 198,000 tons or 2.0%. From January to November, the cumulative steel imports were 5.541 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5%, and the cumulative exports were 107.717 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, China imported 496,000 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons or 1.4% [2] - More than 20 cities have suspended or adjusted the application for automobile trade - in subsidies. The full exemption policy for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will end in less than a month. From January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, a 50% tax reduction will be implemented, with a maximum tax reduction of 15,000 yuan per new - energy passenger vehicle [2]