沪铜产业日报-20251208

Report Summary - Report Date: December 8, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Shanghai Copper Industry Daily Report - Researcher: Chen Sijia [3] - Futures Qualification Number: F03118799 [3] - Investment Consultation Certificate Number: Z0022803 [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The processing fee index of copper concentrate declined again, increasing concerns about tight copper supply. The supply of refined copper in China maintained a growth trend, while short - term high copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing sentiment. However, year - end sales sprints of car manufacturers and power system rush - work provided some demand resilience for Shanghai copper, and social inventory still slightly decreased. The option market sentiment was bullish, and the implied volatility slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD showed double lines above the 0 - axis with the initial appearance of a red column. The report suggested light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 92,970 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; LME 3 - month copper was 11,692 dollars/ton, up 71.5 dollars [2] - Spreads and Positions: The inter - month spread of the main contract was - 60 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 230,045 lots, down 6,449 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 34,429 lots, up 10,129 lots [2] - Inventories: LME copper inventory was 162,550 tons, down 275 tons; SHFE cathode copper inventory was 88,905 tons, down 9,025 tons; SHFE cathode copper warrants were 29,956 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - Prices: SMM 1 copper spot price was 92,300 yuan/ton, up 715 yuan; Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 92,175 yuan/ton, up 720 yuan [2] - Premiums: Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) was 46 dollars/ton, unchanged; Yangshan copper average premium was 41 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars; the basis of the CU main contract was - 670 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan; LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 23.05 dollars/ton, down 27.39 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - Imports and Fees: The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.4515 million tons, down 135,600 tons; the copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was - 42.86 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars [2] - Prices: Copper concentrate prices in Jiangxi were 82,470 yuan/metal ton, up 730 yuan; in Yunnan, they were 83,170 yuan/metal ton, up 730 yuan; the southern processing fee for blister copper was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern processing fee was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Production and Imports: The production of refined copper was 1.204 million tons, down 62,000 tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 427,000 tons, down 13,000 tons [2] - Inventories and Prices: Social copper inventory was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 62,440 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 76,450 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan [2] - By - product Price: The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - Production: The production of copper products was 2.004 million tons, down 228,000 tons; the monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,177,000,000 pieces, down 194,236,100 pieces [2] - Investment: The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction was 482.434 billion yuan, up 44.627 billion yuan; the cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 7,356.27 billion yuan, up 585.699 billion yuan [2] Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 13.55%, down 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.70%, down 0.26% [2] - Implied Volatility and Ratio: The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option was 22.4%, up 0.0201%; the put - call ratio of at - the - money options was 1.15, down 0.0529 [2] Industry News - US Economic Data: The US core PCE price index in September increased 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. Real personal consumption expenditure in September was flat month - on - month. The one - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in December dropped to 4.1%, the lowest since January this year, and the five - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.2%. The US White House National Economic Council Director said it was a good time for the Fed to "cautiously cut interest rates" and expected action next week [2] - Chinese Policy: During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, China will implement a special consumption - boosting action, expand service consumption, actively expand independent opening - up, and promote trade innovation and two - way investment cooperation. The "15th Five - Year Plan" for the automotive industry aims to promote domestic automobile sales to exceed 35 million units, with a new energy vehicle penetration rate exceeding 70% and the popularization of high - level intelligent driving [2] - US Economic Forecast: The US Treasury Secretary predicted that the US GDP growth rate this year would reach 3%, and the inflation rate would drop significantly next year, with the bond market having its best performance since 2020 [2]