合成橡胶产业日报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The butadiene rubber market this week was mainly affected by the news of natural rubber and butadiene. With no clear positive signs in the supply - demand fundamentals, downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance. The inventory of sample producers increased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly. The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,250 - 10,700 in the short term [2]. - As the production of previously overhauled enterprises gradually resumes to normal levels, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased last week. However, the shipment pace of each tire enterprise was slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 10,515 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 105 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 27,454, a week - on - week decrease of 2,743; the 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 4,340 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 10,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 10,700 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton [2]. - Brent crude oil was 63.75 US dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.49 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 60.08 US dollars/barrel; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 745 US dollars/ton; Naphtha CFR Japan was 559.75 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 850 US dollars/ton; the mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong was 7,200 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.94 million tons/week, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 41,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 56.11%, a week - on - week increase of 1.12 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 73.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.34 percentage points; the production profit of butadiene rubber was 484 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%; the producer inventory of butadiene rubber was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 200 tons; the trader inventory of butadiene rubber was 5,230 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 310 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 70.92%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.51 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 44.95 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. The production of overhauled sample enterprises gradually resumed during the week, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In November, the domestic output of butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points [2]. - As of December 4, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. Some tight - supply resources were replenished this week, but downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance [2].