瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate narrowing compared to the previous period. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level, rubber prices are fluctuating downward, tire companies are stocking up moderately at low prices according to their rigid needs, and the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved. The warehouse outbound volume has increased slightly month - on - month, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. In terms of demand, as the production of the previously overhauled enterprises gradually returns to the normal level, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased month - on - month, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise is slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,200 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,065 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 5; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,080 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 35; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 15 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 20. The holding volume of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 123,959 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,189; the holding volume of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 29,787 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,914. The net holding of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 29,217, with a month - on - month decrease of 20; the net holding of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,229, with a month - on - month increase of 460. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 46,030 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 500; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 57,154 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 201 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5. The price of Thai RMB - denominated mixed rubber is 14,380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30; the price of Malaysian RMB - denominated mixed rubber is 14,330 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 365 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 685 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,806 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 741 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 54 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 59 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month change of 0; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheets) is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.4; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.5; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lumps) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 125 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 23.2; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 43.2 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 70.2. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 61,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.5% (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.92% (weekly), with a month - on - month increase of 1.73 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.51 days (weekly), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 44.95 days (weekly), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.28 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 13.48% (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 0.28 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 16.55% (daily), with a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.34% (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.33% (daily), with a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, with an increase rate of 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase rate of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase rate of 1.38%. As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]