白糖产业周报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The SR2501 contract is less than one month away from the delivery month. Last week, the 01 - 03 spread was basically stable with a slight premium. The strong performance of 01 is due to the fact that the current price of new sugar is generally higher than that of old sugar and higher than the futures price, leading to the need for spot - futures convergence under the condition of the futures price being at a discount. However, the huge supply pressure poses a great challenge to both the spot and futures markets, making it difficult to achieve convergence through a rebound. The SR2603 and SR2605 contracts currently show a structure where the near - term contracts are at a discount, mainly because the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to have an increased production. The discount of the far - term contracts is widening. In the long run, the 03 contract faces pressure during the off - season of consumption and the peak of inventory, not less than the 01 contract, while the 05 contract will be impacted by imported sugar. Therefore, the pattern of the far - term discount is difficult to break, and the spread may widen further [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Domestic Market - The spot price in Nanning is 5450 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, it is 5340 - 5420 yuan/ton [3] - China imported 750,000 tons of sugar in October, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3] - As of December 1st, 39 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, 22 less than the same period last year. The daily crushing capacity is 309,500 tons/day, a year - on - year decrease of 187,500 tons/day [3] International Market - According to ISMA data, India had produced 4.1 million tons of sugar as of the end of November, higher than 2.88 million tons last year [4] - Brazil exported 3.3023 million tons of sugar in November, a year - on - year decrease of 2.59% [4] - ISMA estimates that India's sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 34.35 million tons (including ethanol), with 3.4 million tons used for ethanol [4] - India has signed contracts to export 100,000 tons of sugar, and the shipment will be delivered before mid - January, and the transportation has started. The weakening of the rupee may promote more trade [4] - The market expects that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November increased by 14.9% to 18.85 million tons, and sugar production increased by 18.9% year - on - year to 1.075 million tons [4] - India has opened an export quota of 1.5 million tons, lower than the market's expectation of 2 million tons. Due to the current domestic sugar price in India being higher than the overseas price, the possibility of exports is low at present [4] - As of November 19th, 147 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, have started production, crushing 11.277 million tons of sugarcane and producing 868,100 quintals of sugar, with an average sugar recovery rate of 7.4%. In the same period last year, only 91 mills were in operation, crushing 1.35 million tons of sugarcane, with a sugar recovery rate of 4.2% [4] Sugar Futures Weekly Prices and Spreads | Contract | Closing Price on 2025 - 12 - 08 | Change Rate | Spread | Closing Price on 2025 - 12 - 08 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SR01 | 5337 | 0.64% | SR01 - 05 | 70 | 0 | | SR03 | 5281 | 0.3% | SR05 - 09 | - 20 | 0 | | SR05 | 5244 | 0.21% | SR09 - 01 | - 50 | 0 | | SR07 | 5257 | 0.25% | SR01 - 03 | 38 | 0 | | SR09 | 5262 | 0.17% | SR03 - 05 | 32 | 0 | | SR11 | 5263 | 0.29% | SR05 - 07 | - 11 | 0 | | SB | 14.82 | 0% | SR07 - 09 | - 9 | 0 | | W | 425.7 | 0% | SR09 - 11 | 5 | 0 | | | | | SR11 - 01 | - 55 | 0 | [6] Sugar Spot Weekly Prices and Spreads | Location | Price on 2025 - 12 - 08 | Change | Spread | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nanning | 5360 | - 80 | Nanning - Liuzhou | 10 | 0 | | Liuzhou | 5350 | - 80 | Nanning - Kunming | 20 | 10 | | Kunming | 5320 | - 110 | Nanning - Zhanjiang | 60 | 10 | | Zhanjiang | 5300 | - 100 | Nanning - Rizhao | - 290 | 60 | | Rizhao | 5650 | - 150 | Nanning - Urumqi | 260 | 60 | | Urumqi | 5100 | - 150 | Kunming - Rizhao | - 310 | 50 | [7] Sugar Weekly Basis | Location - Contract | Basis on 2025 - 12 - 08 | Change | Location - Contract | Basis on 2025 - 12 - 08 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nanning - SR01 | 107 | 42 | Kunming - SR01 | 67 | 47 | | Nanning - SR03 | 145 | 38 | Kunming - SR03 | 105 | 43 | | Nanning - SR05 | 177 | 40 | Kunming - SR05 | 137 | 45 | | Nanning - SR07 | 166 | 37 | Kunming - SR07 | 126 | 42 | | Nanning - SR09 | 157 | 32 | Kunming - SR09 | 117 | 37 | | Nanning - SR11 | 162 | 34 | Kunming - SR11 | 122 | 39 | [8][10] Sugar Weekly Import Price Changes | Import Source | Quota - in Price on 2025 - 12 - 05 | Weekly Change | Quota - out Price | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brazil | 4079 | - 93 | 5168 | - 121 | | Rizhao - Brazil | 1556 | - 72 | 462 | - 49 | | Liuzhou - Brazil | 1240 | 4 | 151 | 32 | | Zhengzhou Sugar - Brazil | 1224 | - 4 | 135 | 24 | | Thailand | 4127 | - 91 | 5231 | - 118 | | Rizhao - Thailand | 1507 | - 75 | 399 | - 52 | | Liuzhou - Thailand | 1192 | 2 | 88 | 29 | | Zhengzhou Sugar - Thailand | 1176 | - 6 | 72 | 21 | [11]