大越期货玻璃早报-20251209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, with production profit repair being sluggish, supply contraction falling short of expectations, downstream deep - processing orders being weak due to the real - estate drag, and inventory at a historically high level. It is expected to show a weak and oscillatory trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract increased from 994 yuan/ton to 1002 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.80%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass remained unchanged at 984 yuan/ton, and the main basis changed from - 10 yuan/ton to - 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 80.00% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 984 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side The report does not provide specific cost - side information, only mentions glass production profit but lacks detailed data. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide is 220, with an operating rate of 74.51%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level. The daily melting capacity is 157,200 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level [25][27]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - According to Longzhong Information, the apparent consumption of float glass in September 2025 was 4.7082 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventory [5][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 59.442 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][43]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [44]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: "Coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and industry cold - repair have led to production losses [4]. - Negative Factors: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventory [5]. Main Logic The glass supply has stabilized at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and the glass factory inventory has increased. It is expected that the glass will show a weak and oscillatory trend at a low level [6].