焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-9）-20251209

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of coking coal and coke on December 9, 2025. It is expected that the short - term price of coking coal may run weakly, and the price of coke may also show a weak trend in the short term [2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Regional coal mines are recovering slowly, with limited overall coking coal increment. After recent price cuts, coal mine shipments have improved slightly, but the market sentiment is weak, and end - users mainly have rigid demand. The marginal supply - demand relationship of coking coal has weakened, and the trading and speculative sentiment in the middle has cooled down, leading to price cuts [2]. - Base Difference: The spot market price is 1170, with a basis of 76.5, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 801 million tons, port inventory is 295 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1957 million tons, a decrease of 21 million tons from last week [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [2]. - Main Position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - Expectation: After the coke price cut is implemented and the finished product price rises slightly, although the steel mill profit has improved, it is still in a loss state, and the actual market demand is insufficient. With the expectation of a weakening coke price, downstream buyers mainly make rigid purchases, and the short - term coking coal price may run weakly [2]. - Positive Factors: Rising molten iron production and difficult supply increase [4]. - Negative Factors: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - Fundamentals: As the price of coking coal at the raw material end continues to fall, coking enterprises still have a certain profit margin after the coke price cut, and the production load has been continuously increasing, with a steady increase in coke output. However, due to the orange warning for heavy pollution weather in Shaanxi and Henan, local coking enterprises are required to reduce production, and the supply of local coke resources has tightened. Some coking enterprises have increased inventory pressure [6]. - Base Difference: The spot market price is 1600, with a basis of 63, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [6]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 626 million tons, port inventory is 187 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 858 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main Position: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position is increasing [6]. - Expectation: In the off - season market, the demand for steel is weak, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills has decreased, and the demand for coke has declined. Coking enterprises also have inventory accumulation. In the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, the weak situation of coke is difficult to improve, and the short - term coke price may run weakly [6]. - Positive Factors: Rising molten iron production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - Negative Factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [8]. Price - Imported Coking Coal: The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal at various ports on December 8, 2025, including different varieties such as main coking coal, 1/3 coking coal, and fat coal, along with price changes [9]. - Port Metallurgical Coke: It shows the price index of port metallurgical coke on December 8, 2025, including different grades (such as quasi - first - grade and first - grade) and different origins (such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia), as well as price changes [10]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [18]. - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [22]. - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [27]. Other Data - Coking Plant Capacity Utilization Rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprise samples nationwide is 74.48% [40]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [44].