大越期货油脂早报-20251209

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The current main risk is El Nino weather [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the month - end inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8384, with a basis of 352, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous 1.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2]. - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2]. - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8726, with a basis of 20, indicating a neutral situation where the spot price is slightly higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 570,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - Disk: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9885, with a basis of 383, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4]. - Disk: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9000 - 9400 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - 利多 Factors: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a palm oil tremor season [5]. - 利空 Factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5].