大越期货白糖早报-20251209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 2025/26 season, with varying estimates of the surplus volume [4][9][35]. - As the SR2601 contract approaches delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. The current futures price is accelerating towards the bottom, and the current round of decline is nearing its end. The risk of short - selling at the current level increases, and there may be a short - term technical rebound [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. DATAGRO has revised its surplus forecast down to 100 million tons, Czarnikow has raised its forecast to 740 million tons, and StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and imported 11.55 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons. This is a bearish signal [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5500 yuan/ton, and the basis for the SR2605 contract is 256 yuan/ton, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, considered neutral [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish signal [6]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, also a bearish signal [6]. - Leveraging Factors: Positive factors include an increase in syrup tariffs and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include an increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season, a drop in the price of foreign sugar below 15 cents per pound, and an opening of the import profit window, which increases import pressure [7][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - Demand Forecast by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply - demand balance. StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus, ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus, and Datagro predicts a 153 - million - ton surplus [35]. - China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2024/25 to 2025/26, changes are expected in sugar - crop planting area, yield per unit area, sugar production, import, consumption, and price. For example, the predicted sugar production in 2025/26 (November forecast) is 1170 million tons, and the consumption is 1570 million tons [37]. - Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost: As of the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar was about 5086 yuan/ton. Due to the continuous decline in international sugar prices, the import profit is considerable [42]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.