大越期货沪铜早报-20251209

Report Core View - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being liberalized. The November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. The copper price hit a new record high again and is expected to run strongly with inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining [2]. Industry Situation Analysis Fundamentals - The supply side has disturbances, and the November China Manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement but is still in the contraction range, considered neutral [2]. Basis - The spot price is 92150, and the basis is -820, at a discount to the futures, considered bearish [2]. Inventory - On December 8, copper inventory increased by 2000 to 164550 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 9025 tons to 88905 tons compared to last week, considered neutral [2]. Market Chart - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, considered bullish [2]. Main Position - The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, considered bearish [2]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [19]. Other Situations - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level, and the processing fee has declined [13][15]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3].