沪锌期货早报-20251209

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc fluctuate and rise, closing with a positive line, increased trading volume, and both long and short positions increasing, with more short - position increases. The market may fluctuate and decline in the short term. Technically, the price closed above the moving - average system with strong support. Short - term indicators KDJ are rising, operating in the strong area with increased overbought conditions; the trend indicator is declining, with the long - position strength rising and the short - position strength falling, and the long - position advantage expanding. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2601 will fluctuate and decline [22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons; from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 23,270, and the basis was + 100, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On December 8, LME zinc inventory increased by 2,375 tons to 57,750 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 2,332 tons to 58,397 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. 4. Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a fluctuating and rising trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average rising, showing a bullish sign [2]. 5. Main Position Analysis - The main net position was short, and short positions increased, showing a bearish sign [2]. 6. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on December 8 - The trading volume of zinc futures on December 8 was 275,955 lots, and the trading value was 3.19074597 billion yuan. The total open interest was 214,900 lots, an increase of 6,840 lots [3]. 7. Domestic Main Spot Market on December 8 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 1,800 yuan/metal ton (down 100 yuan), and the comprehensive TC for imported zinc concentrate was 70 US dollars/dry ton (unchanged). The prices of 0 zinc in Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang were 23,270 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), 22,980 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), 23,090 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), and 23,260 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan) respectively [4]. 8. Zinc Ingot Inventory in Main Markets from November 27 to December 8 - The total zinc ingot inventory in main markets decreased from 14.04 million tons on November 27 to 13.23 million tons on December 8, a decrease of 0.53 million tons compared to December 1 and a decrease of 0.16 million tons compared to December 4 [5]. 9. Shanghai Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on December 8 - The total zinc warrants on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 8 were 58,397 tons, a decrease of 2,332 tons. The warrants in Guangdong decreased by 1,578 tons, and those in Tianjin decreased by 424 tons [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on December 8 - The previous day's LME zinc inventory was 55,375 tons, with an inflow of 2,475 tons and an outflow of 100 tons, and the current inventory was 57,750 tons, an increase of 2,375 tons [8]. 11. Zinc Concentrate Price in Main Cities on December 8 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in cities such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Kunming were 19,860 yuan, 19,760 yuan, and 19,760 yuan respectively, with price changes ranging from - 10 yuan to + 290 yuan [10]. 12. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on December 8 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Pei, San Shi Huludao Zinc Industry, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan were 23,400 yuan, 23,830 yuan, and 23,130 yuan respectively [13]. 13. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in November 2025 - The actual refined zinc production in November 2025 was 496,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%, a year - on - year increase of 18.48%, and a 4.93% decrease compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 69.45%, and the planned production for December was 477,500 tons [16]. 14. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on December 8 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% - grade in different regions ranged from 1,600 yuan/metal ton to 2,200 yuan/metal ton, with price changes from - 300 yuan to 0 yuan. The processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 70 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 15. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on December 8 - The total trading volume of zinc by members of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 292,199 lots, an increase of 34,488 lots. The total long - position was 74,214 lots, an increase of 2,056 lots, and the total short - position was 71,587 lots, an increase of 2,744 lots [21].