大越期货菜粕早报-20251209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2320 - 2380. The market has returned to a volatile state, awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a volatile pattern, with the future development to be observed [9]. - The domestic rapeseed meal market is influenced by factors such as the off - season of aquaculture demand, the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the low inventory of rapeseed meal [9][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate between 2320 and 2380. The market is affected by soybean meal trends, technical adjustments, and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term trend is volatile [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply expected to be tight in the short term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but exports are expected to decrease due to Sino - Canadian trade issues [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on global rapeseed production is relatively offset, but there is still a possibility of an increase in geopolitical conflicts, which may support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price data: From November 28 to December 8, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated slightly, while the average transaction price of rapeseed meal decreased. The spot price of rapeseed meal was higher than the futures price, and the basis was positive. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian decreased from 2550 on November 28 to 2500 on December 8 [13][15]. - Inventory data: The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills remained at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume was zero [9][25][27]. - Aquaculture data: Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.