大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate last week was 21,939 tons, a 0.33% week-on-week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased week-on-week. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica decreased or remained flat, with production losses. The cost of the salt lake end is significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased week-on-week but was higher than the historical average. The 05 contract price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate between 91,180 - 94,940 [8][9]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main risk points are the impact of production suspension, reduction, or maintenance plans and the start time of industry clearance [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,939 tons, a 0.33% week-on-week increase, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the production was 95,350 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 98,210 physical tons, a 3.00% increase [8]. - Demand: The inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises last week was 103,681 tons, a 0.63% week-on-week decrease, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,842 tons, a 2.68% week-on-week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 93,764 yuan/ton, a 0.52% daily decrease, with a production loss of 1,810 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 92,638 yuan/ton, remaining flat, with a production loss of 2,982 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [9]. - Base Difference: On December 8th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,750 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract base difference was - 2,090 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The smelter inventory was 20,767 tons, a 14.62% week-on-week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 43,695 tons, a 4.08% week-on-week increase, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 49,140 tons, a 1.04% week-on-week decrease, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 113,602 tons, a 2.04% week-on-week decrease, higher than the historical average [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [9]. - Expectation: Lithium carbonate 2605 is expected to fluctuate between 91,180 - 94,940 [9]. - Likely Factors: Lithium mica manufacturers plan to cut production, and the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased month-on-month [11]. - Negative Factors: The supply of ore and salt lake ends remains high, with limited decline [12]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - Futures Closing Price: The closing prices of various contracts increased, with increases ranging from 2.34% - 3.07% [16]. - Base Difference: The base difference of various contracts decreased, with decreases ranging from 101.95% - 318.81% [16]. - Registered Warehouse Receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 13,120, a 20.12% increase [16]. - Upstream Prices: The prices of lithium ore, lithium mica concentrate, and some lithium salts changed slightly [16]. - Positive Material and Lithium Battery Prices: The prices of some positive materials and lithium batteries changed slightly [16]. 3.3 Supply - Side and Demand - Side Data - Supply - Side: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 75.34%, remaining flat. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in November 2025 was 95,350 tons, a 3.35% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate increased [19]. - Demand - Side: The monthly operating rate and production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials changed. The monthly power battery loading volume increased, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased [19]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of lithium ore has changed over time [26]. - Production: The production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines has changed over the years [26]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed over time [26]. - Self - Sufficiency Rate: The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has changed over time [26]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has changed over the years [26]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Ore - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has fluctuated over time, with different values in different months [29]. 3.6 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - Operating Rate: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) has changed over time [32]. - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources has changed over time [32]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries has changed over time [32]. 3.7 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated over time, with different values in different months [38]. 3.8 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization Rate: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [41]. - Operating Rate: The monthly operating rate of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) has changed over time [41]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources has changed over time [41]. - Export: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [41]. 3.9 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated over time, with different values in different months [44]. 3.10 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled materials for producing lithium carbonate have changed over time [47][48]. - The processing cost composition of lithium mica and lithium spodumene has changed over time [47]. - The import profit of lithium carbonate, the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the carbonization profit of lithium hydroxide have changed over time [47][48]. 3.11 Inventory - The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different sources have changed over time [54]. 3.12 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The price of batteries has changed over time [58]. - Production: The monthly production of battery cells has changed over time [58]. - Loading Volume: The monthly power battery loading volume has changed over time [58]. - Shipping Volume: The monthly shipping volume of power battery cells has changed over time [58]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [58]. - Cost: The cost of battery cells has changed over time [58]. 3.13 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursors has changed over time [63]. - Cost - Profit: The cost and profit of ternary precursors have changed over time [63]. - Processing Fee: The processing fee of ternary precursors has changed over time [63]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has changed over the years [63]. - Capacity: The capacity of ternary precursors has changed over the years [63]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors has changed over time [63]. 3.14 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has fluctuated over time, with different values in different months [66]. 3.15 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The price of ternary materials has changed over time [69]. - Cost - Profit: The cost and profit of ternary materials have changed over time [69]. - Operating Rate: The weekly operating rate of ternary materials has changed over the years [69]. - Capacity: The capacity of ternary materials has changed over the years [69]. - Production: The production of ternary materials has changed over time [69]. - Processing Fee: The processing fee of ternary materials has changed over time [71]. - Export and Import: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed over the years [71]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials has changed over time [71]. 3.16 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - Price: The price of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over time [73]. - Cost - Profit: The cost and profit of phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time [73]. - Capacity: The capacity of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over the years [73]. - Operating Rate: The monthly operating rate of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over time [73]. - Production: The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over time [76]. - Export: The monthly export volume of phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over the years [76]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over time [78]. 3.17 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid and pure - electric) has changed over time [81]. - Export: The export volume of new energy vehicles has changed over the years [81]. - Sales: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric, and total sales) has changed over time [81]. - Penetration Rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has changed over the years [82]. - Retail - Wholesale Ratio: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles has changed over time [85]. - Inventory Index: The monthly dealer inventory warning index and inventory index of new energy vehicles have changed over the years [85].