芳烃橡胶早报-20251209

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the short - term is to wait and see, and in the long - term, considering the good PX pattern, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips under the support of raw materials [2]. - For MEG, the short - term valuation is low but the driving force is limited, and the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the long - term pattern may turn weaker, and pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [3]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory is stable and the absolute level is not high, and the Thai cup rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs PTA - Proximal TA device runs stably, with the start - up rate unchanged from the previous week. The polyester load increases slightly, the inventory remains stable, the basis is stable, and the spot processing fee improves compared with the previous week. PX domestic start - up rate remains stable, some overseas devices are stable, PXN strengthens, disproportionation and isomerization benefits improve, and the aromatics price difference between the US and Asia remains [2]. - The terminal weakens faster, the inflection point of polyester load is approaching, TA inventory will gradually accumulate again, but the overall pressure is not large and the valuation is not high [2]. MEG - Proximal domestic devices have both maintenance and restart, the start - up rate decreases slightly. Some overseas devices reduce the load, the arrival at the port is stable, the port inventory accumulates at the beginning of next week, and the arrival forecast within the week rebounds. The basis weakens, and the coal - to - MEG profit weakens again [3]. - After the EG price drops again, the coal - to - MEG loss intensifies, and the price ratio with other olefins continues to weaken. There is some production reduction on the supply side but the inventory accumulation trend has not been reversed [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Proximal devices run stably, the start - up rate maintains at 97.5%, production and sales are basically stable, and the inventory decreases compared with the previous week. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn remains stable, raw material stockpiling decreases, and finished product inventory accumulates, and the profit remains stable [3]. - The demand for staple fiber basically maintains the previous state, the export of staple fiber itself maintains high growth, the short - term inventory pressure is limited, but in the long - term, the downstream enters the off - season and new devices are about to be put into production on the supply side, so the pattern may turn weaker [3]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - The national explicit inventory is stable and the absolute level is not high, the Thai cup rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [3]. Styrene - From December 2 - 8, 2025, the prices of ethylene, pure benzene, and benzene - related products in some regions change to different degrees. For example, the price of pure benzene (East China) increases by 50, and the price of benzene - ethylene (Jiangsu) increases by 75. The domestic profits of some products such as EPS and PS also change [6].