集运早报-20251209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS is significantly lower than the market expectation of around 1650 points, possibly due to delayed low - price PA ships, partial cargo rejection, and a high proportion of low - price containers in the index. Based on quotes, P1 is about 1550 - 1600 points (PA low - price may be lower, around 1500 - 1550 points), P2 is about 1650 - 1700 points, and P3 is expected to remain flat [3]. - The valuation of the 02 contract is neutral with short - term upward drivers because of the improvement in cargo volume, leading to expectations of flat freight rates in late December and price increases in January [3]. - The lower - than - expected SCFIS may cause the morning trading session to be weak. Historically, freight rate peaks usually occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (corresponding to mid - to - late January 2026), but the large supply of shipping capacity in January 2026 may suppress the peak. A cautious long - position view is maintained [3]. - The short - term downside space of the 04 contract is small. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when the 04 contract may rise following the near - month contracts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - Contract Prices and Changes: For example, the EC2512 contract had a closing price of 1669.8 with a 0.68% increase, while the EC2606 contract had a closing price of 1217.3 with a 2.81% decrease [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The EC2602 contract had a trading volume of 19294 and an open interest of 31466 with a decrease of 749 in open interest [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 592.1, with a day - on - day increase of 26.4 [2]. Spot Market - SCFIS (European Route): On December 8, 2025, the index was 1509.10 points, up 1.72% from the previous period, and the container rate was 1400 dollars/TEU, down 0.28% [2]. - CCFI and NCFI: On December 5, 2025, the CCFI was 1447.56 points, down 0.12% from the previous period, and the NCFI was 967.55 points, down 5.57% from the previous period [2]. European Route Spot Situation - Week 50: MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, setting the tone, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2200 dollars, equivalent to 1550 points on the index. COSCO's offline price is 2400 dollars (+200 dollars) [4]. - Week 51: MSK's opening price was 2400 dollars (+200 dollars), and it announced a price increase for January, with freight rates for 20/40 - foot containers on the European route rising to 2275/3500 dollars respectively [4].