有色早报-20251209

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a strategy of buying on dips, with an expected price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be relatively loose in supply and demand at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. - Zinc prices may be difficult to fall deeply in the short - term, with suggestions to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal - external trading, and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [6]. - Nickel presents a weak short - term fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [7][8]. - Stainless steel has a weak fundamental situation, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan next week, and caution is required due to the risk of low warehouse receipts [13]. - Tin prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and can be used as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous metals sector in the first half of 2026 [16]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [19]. - Lithium carbonate shows a short - term pattern of strong supply and demand, and the upward potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [21]. Summary by Metals Copper - This week, the LME cash - 3m spread soared due to a large increase in cancelled warrants in Asia. Copper prices exceeded $11,000 again. There is a structural supply - demand gap, and inventory distribution is uneven globally. In China, consumption slowed down due to high prices, with a slight inventory build - up expected until the Spring Festival. After the FOMC meeting in December, attention should be paid to whether the US dollar index rebounds, and the price is expected to range between $10,800 - $12,000 [1]. Aluminum - Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are beneficial to the overall trend. Aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, while aluminum products continued to reduce inventory. Demand at the end of the year is good. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices rose this week. The LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined. Supply from domestic and imported mines is tightening, and multiple smelters will undergo maintenance in December. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while US imports have increased. With the opening of the export window, domestic social inventory has decreased, and the premium has increased. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [4][5][6]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, demand was weak, and both domestic and overseas inventories continued to increase. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining sector, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [7][8]. Stainless Steel - Steel mills maintained high production. Demand was mainly for rigid needs. Nickel and chromium prices were stable. Inventory remained high. The fundamental situation is weak, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. Lead - Lead prices rebounded this week. Primary lead production remained high, while concentrate production declined seasonally. Secondary lead production increased. Battery demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12][13]. Tin - Tin prices were driven up by the non - ferrous metals sector. The processing fee for tin ore remained low. Overseas production recovery is slow, but high prices have stimulated inventory exports. Demand is mainly supported by rigid needs. Short - term fundamentals are good, with a high probability of high - level fluctuations. It can be used as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous metals sector in the first half of 2026 [16]. Industrial Silicon - The futures market fluctuated weakly this week. Terminal procurement was average. Southwest producers cut production to support prices, while northern producers maintained stable production. In the short - term, supply and demand are balanced, and prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market declined significantly this week due to the resumption of production in Jiangxi and Ningde and the expectation of a power - consumption off - season. Supply and demand are both strong in the short - term. The opening of upward potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [21].