Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers detailed analyses and outlooks for various futures products, encompassing financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It also provides corresponding investment strategies and suggestions for each product based on factors such as supply - demand dynamics, market sentiment, and macro - economic policies [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - Tin: With a strong fundamental outlook, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand in certain sectors is stable. A bullish stance on tin prices is recommended, with existing long positions to be held and additional long positions to be added on price pullbacks [2]. - Corn: The corn market is under pressure due to limited downstream acceptance of high prices. The short - term outlook is for a downward trend, but the decline may be limited. Short - term trading is advised [3]. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Port inventories are continuously increasing, and market sentiment is bearish. EG prices are expected to continue to decline. An EG1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is recommended [4]. - Coking Coal: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is weak. A bearish view on coking coal is maintained, with a recommended trading range of 1000 - 1150. An arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal is suggested [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: The A - share market rallied on Monday, with most major indices rising. TMT sectors were particularly strong, while cyclical sectors corrected. - News: The Politburo meeting proposed a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026. Overseas, Trump ordered an investigation into the US food supply chain. - Funding: A - share trading volume increased by over 300 billion yuan, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. - Operation Suggestion: Given the upcoming Fed meeting and the expected rate cut, it is recommended to lightly and gradually build a bullish spread on CSI 1000 put options on price pullbacks [6][7][8]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures showed mixed results. The 30 - year contract declined, while the 10 - year contract rose slightly. - Funding: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. The inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable. - Policy: The Politburo meeting emphasized the importance of improving the quality and effectiveness of policies and strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments. - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to temporarily observe the market. If market sentiment improves, consider going long on Treasury bond futures with maturities of less than 10 years. A curve - steepening strategy is also suggested [9][10][12]. Precious Metals - Market Review: US inflation expectations were stable, and employment data improved. Japan's GDP contracted in Q3. The Fed's "shadow chairman" was less dovish than expected, leading to a stronger US dollar and higher US bond yields. Precious metals prices continued to fluctuate. - Outlook: Gold prices are expected to trade sideways around $4200. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides is recommended. Silver prices are also expected to be range - bound. Platinum prices are expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term but may be affected by short - term fluctuations in gold and silver prices [13][14][15]. Shipping Index (Container Shipping Index - Europe Line) - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and other related indices showed a downward trend. - Fundamentals: Global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The eurozone's PMI was above 50, while the US manufacturing PMI was below 50. - Logic: The futures market was volatile, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term. - Operation Suggestion: Expect short - term sideways movement [18]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Copper prices are at a high level and volatile. Supply concerns are growing, and demand has weakened at high prices. It is recommended to hold long positions in the long - term and take profits on short - term long positions when prices are high [19][20][23]. - Alumina: The market is in a weak downward trend, with high supply and inventory. It is expected to trade at the bottom, and short - term traders can consider going long on dips or selling out - of - the money put options [24][25][26]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, but there is a risk of a pullback at high prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and domestic inventory changes [26][27][28]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price is expected to trade in a narrow range at a high level. An arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 is recommended [29][30][31]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are at a high level and volatile. Export demand has tightened the spot market. It is recommended to pay attention to the TC inflection point and changes in refined zinc inventories [31][32][35]. - Tin: The fundamental outlook is strong, and prices are expected to remain strong. Existing long positions should be held, and additional long positions can be added on dips [35][37][38]. - Nickel: The market is expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to macro - economic expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [38][39][40]. - Stainless Steel: The market is expected to recover through oscillations. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production cuts and raw material price changes [41][42][43]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is expected to trade in a wide range. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [44][45][48]. - Polysilicon: The futures market is expected to trade at a high level and may decline. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [49][50][51]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to trade at a low level and may decline slightly. If there are existing long positions, they can be held [52][53][54]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: Steel prices are affected by falling raw material prices. A strategy of going long on rebar and short on iron ore is recommended [54][55][58]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices are expected to weaken. A strategy of shorting the 2605 contract on rallies is recommended [59][60]. - Coke: Coke prices are expected to decline. A bearish view is maintained, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal is recommended [61][62][63]. Agricultural Products - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal): The domestic meal market is in a loose supply situation. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report. The market is expected to be weak, but the basis may strengthen [64][65][68]. - Hogs: Spot prices are showing signs of stabilization and rebound. The futures market is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term [69][70]. - Corn: Corn prices are under pressure due to limited downstream acceptance of high prices. Short - term trading is advised [71][73]. - Sugar: The international sugar price is in a bearish situation, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly [74]. - Cotton: The US cotton price is at the bottom and trading sideways, and the domestic cotton price is expected to trade within a range [76][77]. - Eggs: Egg prices are expected to be weak but with limited downside potential [79]. - Oils and Fats: Palm oil prices are expected to trade sideways, and soybean oil prices are expected to decline slightly [80][81]. - Jujubes: The jujube market is expected to trade in a low - level range, with limited upside potential [82]. - Apples: Apple prices are expected to remain stable with slow sales [83][84]. Energy Chemicals - PX: PX prices are expected to trade in the range of 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton in the short term, with a positive medium - term outlook [85][86]. - PTA: PTA prices are expected to trade in the range of 4500 - 4800 yuan/ton in the short term. A TA5 - 9 low - level positive spread strategy is recommended [87][88][89]. - Short - Fiber: The short - fiber market is expected to see a compression of processing margins. A strategy similar to PTA is recommended [90]. - Polyester Bottle Chips (PR): PR prices are expected to follow the cost trend, and processing margins are expected to be squeezed. A strategy of shorting processing margins is recommended [91][92]. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): EG prices are expected to continue to decline. An EG1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is recommended [93][94]. - Pure Benzene: The short - term outlook for pure benzene is weak, and it may follow the trends of oil prices and styrene [95][96]. - Styrene: Styrene prices are expected to be slightly strong in the short term, but the upside potential is limited [97][99]. - LLDPE: LLDPE prices are expected to trade in the range of 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton [100]. - PP: The 01 contract of PP is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [101]. - Methanol: Methanol prices are expected to be weak in the short term. A strategy of reducing 05MTO positions is recommended [101]. - Caustic Soda: Caustic soda prices are expected to continue to decline. Short positions can be held [103][104]. - PVC: PVC prices are expected to remain weak at the bottom [105]. - Soda Ash: Soda ash prices are expected to decline. Short positions can be held [106][107]. - Glass: Glass prices are expected to be bearish [106][108]. - Natural Rubber: Rubber prices are expected to be weak and volatile. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [108][109][110]. - Synthetic Rubber (BR): BR prices are expected to face resistance at the upper level. A strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [111][112].
广发早知道：汇总版-20251209
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-12-09 02:27