建信期货生猪日报-20251209

1. Report Information - Report Date: December 09, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The high utilization rate of second - fattening pens and the increase in planned slaughter in December add pressure on supply before the Spring Festival [7]. - On the demand side, the utilization rate of pens is high, and second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see mode. There may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. With the continuous cooling of the weather, cured meat and sausage production are increasing, and fresh meat sales and terminal consumption are rising, leading to an increase in slaughter volume [7]. - Overall, the spot market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, but the weak enthusiasm of second - fattening entry provides weak support for prices, so the spot market may mainly fluctuate. The futures market is expected to face supply pressure due to factors such as concentrated second - fattening in October and continuous release of production capacity, with a medium - to - long - term weakening trend, but the frequency of bottom - range fluctuations may increase [7]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures - On the 8th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated upwards, closing with a positive line. The highest price was 11,440 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,105 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,385 yuan/ton, up 2.29% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 5,192 lots to 372,746 lots [6]. Spot - On the 8th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.27 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. 4.2 Industry News - Not provided 4.3 Data Overview - In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13]. - As of the week of December 4, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 135.01 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.88 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 273 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/head [13]. - As of the week of December 4, the cost of purchasing 110kg pigs for fattening to 140kg was 11.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125kg pigs for fattening to 150kg was 11.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - As of the week of December 4, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.82kg, an increase of 0.60kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. Among them, the average slaughter weight of group farms was 124.71kg, an increase of 0.16kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and the average slaughter weight of散户 was 146.08kg, an increase of 0.91kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [13].