建信期货工业硅日报-20251209

1. Report Date - The report is dated December 09, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers such as Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of Si2601 was 8,675 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.98%, with a trading volume of 251,796 lots and an open interest of 187,087 lots, a net decrease of 9,856 lots. The price of the SI2605 contract was 8,715 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.97%, with a trading volume of 141,927 lots and an open interest of 132,147 lots, a net increase of 17,042 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 10,865 lots, and the short positions had a net increase of 8,913 lots [4] - Spot prices were stable. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9,350 yuan/ton, the price of Yunnan 553 (oxygen - passed) was 9,400 yuan/ton; the price of Sichuan 421 was 9,950 yuan/ton, the price of Xinjiang 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, and the price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Market Outlook - Production cuts in the southwest production areas are approaching the seasonal low, and the start - up in the northwest region is basically stable. The monthly production is expected to be around 350,000 tons. On the demand side, the weakening expectation is being realized. The weekly output of polysilicon is 26,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3%, and the monthly output is expected to be within 115,000 - 120,000 tons. The average operating load rate of silicone monomers is 74.29%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from last week. In addition, the alloy demand has entered the seasonal off - season [5] - Market attention has shifted from production cuts in the southwest to the realization of the weak demand expectation. Spot prices have been slightly adjusted, but the spot price center remains stable. The polysilicon sector opened low and tumbled, driving the same - frequency weakening. At the same time, the sharp decline of major commodities on the raw material side has enlarged the downward space of industrial silicon. After breaking through the short - term support, it will test the lower edge of the range again. The high points of the rebound are gradually moving down, and the short - selling structure is initially showing. It will mainly fluctuate bearishly. Pay attention to whether the support around 8,500 yuan/ton can be confirmed for the second time [5] 4. Market News - On December 08, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 7,528 lots, a net increase of 240 lots from the previous trading day [6] - Forecast of next year's fiscal policy: The deficit rate is about 4%, and the new government debt will exceed 12 trillion yuan. Many experts expect that considering the economic and social situation next year, China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy, that is, a proactive fiscal policy, and the policy stance will remain "more proactive". Specifically, next year's fiscal deficit rate will not be lower than 4% in 2025, and the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds will continue to be moderately increased, so that the new government debt scale next year will exceed about 12 trillion yuan in 2025, for example, it may be between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan. This will expand fiscal expenditure. For example, the national general public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 30 trillion yuan next year, playing an important role in stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and benefiting people's livelihood [6]