建信期货多晶硅日报-20251209

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: December 09, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The price of the polysilicon main contract dropped significantly. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 54,545 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.65%. The trading volume was 157,970 lots, and the open interest was 79,367 lots, with a net decrease of 18,624 lots. The net long position of the top 20 decreased by 12,351 lots [4]. - The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 53,065 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37%. The trading volume was 126,475 lots, and the open interest was 90,283 lots, with a net increase of 13,021 lots. The net short position of the top 20 increased by 9,699 lots [4]. - The transaction price range of polysilicon n-type re-feeding material was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The recent operation of polysilicon futures prices can be summarized in two stages. First, on November 12, when the futures price was pricing in pessimistic expectations, the policy side issued concentrated statements to maintain price stability. After a rapid short - term decline close to the bottom of the range, it began to quickly reduce positions and rebound in line with the policy statements. Second, after the futures price continued to rebound, market funds once again engaged in a short - squeeze game due to the shortage of deliverable goods, and the futures price rose again to the upper limit of the range [5]. - Starting last week, the exchange first restricted positions to curb capital behavior and then expanded the deliverable brands to dispel the shortage expectation. The price trend is due to the same reasons. In summary, the recent operation of futures prices is not dominated by fundamentals. The supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased. The production in December is expected to be flat compared with the previous month, but the weak terminal demand is gradually spreading upstream in the industrial chain. Downstream enterprises are reducing production and controlling output, and the market has not yet entered the active de - stocking stage [5]. - The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells have continued to weaken recently. The industrial chain profits are concentrated in the silicon material end. It is difficult to pass on further price increases of silicon materials. Currently, the policy side emphasizes stability, and the fundamentals provide limited upward driving force. The spot price is stuck at around 53,200 yuan/ton. After the futures price adjusts back to the spot price range, it is expected to continue the volatile pattern. A more definite signal is needed to break through the range, and chasing up and killing down should be avoided within the range [5]. Group 4: Market News - On December 08, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 2,810 lots, an increase of 490 lots from the previous trading day [6]. - In the first week of December, the weekly polysilicon production was 26,470 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 18.43% [6]. - In the first week of December, the weekly polysilicon inventory was 291,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.82% [6]. - According to relevant regulations of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, Xinjiang Jinnuo New Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd.'s "Jinnuo" brand and Xinjiang Oriental Hope New Energy Co., Ltd.'s "Oriental Hope" brand have been added as registered brands for polysilicon futures, effective from the date of the announcement [6][7]