铜期货日报-20251209

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: December 9, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The Shanghai copper price hit a new record high. The spot price rose by 715 to 92,300. High copper prices have weakened downstream orders and pressured the premium. The spot premium fell by 40 to 130. The import loss in the two markets narrowed to around 1,000 yuan. The short - term high copper price suppresses demand, which may cause fluctuations in the upward trend of copper prices. However, due to the tight supply of mines and ingots in 2026 and green demand, the medium - term fundamentals of copper are strongly supported. Coupled with the loose policies of China and the US providing a bullish macro - environment, the medium - term outlook for copper prices is bullish [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper reached a new historical high. The spot price increased by 715 to 92,300. High copper prices led to a decrease in downstream orders, and the spot premium dropped by 40 to 130. The import loss in the two markets narrowed to around 1,000 yuan. The LME0 - 3 back structure narrowed to 23, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained at a low level. The Politburo meeting on China's economy set the tone for economic policies in 2026, with more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which is beneficial to the copper market. This drove the copper price up again in the afternoon. This week, important Chinese data will be released, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting will be held on Thursday, with few expected surprises. In the short term, high copper prices will suppress demand, causing fluctuations in the upward trend of copper prices. But in the medium term, due to tight supply and green demand, and favorable macro - policies, copper prices are expected to rise [10] Group 5: Industry News - In November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.526 million tons, up from 2.45 million tons in October. From January to November, the cumulative imports were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [11] - In November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, down from 440,000 tons in October. From January to November, the cumulative imports were 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [11] - Peru's Congress voted to extend a controversial permit for one year. Informal gold and copper miners with this permit can enjoy more relaxed operating requirements until the end of next year. The bill needs to be signed by the president to take effect and is opposed by the formal mining industry. The territorial conflict between small - scale and large - scale miners has affected several copper mines and projects [11]