永安期货原油成品油早报-20251209

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2 - Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The absolute price rebounded due to factors such as the G7 and the EU considering a ban on Russian export shipping services, Ukraine's attack on a Russian refinery and small ports, and the受阻 of CPC exports. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are accumulating, Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of Arabian light crude oil for Asia in January, and US EIA crude oil and gasoline/diesel inventories are also accumulating. Recently, the operating rate of US refineries has recovered to over 94%, and the crack spreads of European and American gasoline and diesel have declined. In the short term, the diesel fundamentals are stronger. The price range of Brent in the fourth quarter is $55 - $65 per barrel, and a high - short strategy is maintained. In the short term, the valuation deviation is not high, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [5] Group 3 - Summary by Directory 1. Daily News - The crude oil transportation from Lukoil's West Qurna 2 oil storage tank has resumed, and the site is expected to return to normal operation around 1 - 2 am. The repair of the damaged part of the oil pipeline in the West Qurna 2 oil field was completed around 7:30 pm local time [3] - Russia plans to increase oil exports from western ports by 27% in December compared to November [4] - As of the week of December 8, the crude oil arrival volume of Shandong independent refineries was 2.631 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 402,000 tons or 18.04%. In the same period last year, the arrival volume was 1.065 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.032 million tons or 49.21%. The arriving crude oil is mainly medium - quality crude oil, including 297,000 tons of Russian crude oil and 1 new ship of diluted bitumen [4] 2. Inventory - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 28 was 2.48 million barrels, compared with the previous value of - 1.859 million barrels [4] - US API gasoline inventory for the week ending November 28 was 3.136 million barrels, compared with the previous value of 539,000 barrels [4] - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending November 28 was 574,000 barrels, with an expected value of - 821,000 barrels and a previous value of 2.774 million barrels [4] - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending November 28 was 4.518 million barrels, with an expected value of 1.468 million barrels and a previous value of 2.513 million barrels [4] - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending November 28 was 2.059 million barrels, with an expected value of 707,000 barrels and a previous value of 1.147 million barrels [4] - US domestic crude oil production for the week ending November 28 increased by 100,000 barrels to 13.815 million barrels per day [4] - US EIA refinery equipment utilization rate for the week ending November 28: the previous value was 92.3%, the expected value was 93%, and the announced value was 94.1% [5] 3. Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The absolute price rebounded due to geopolitical factors. Fundamentally, inventories are accumulating, and the operating rate of US refineries has recovered. The short - term diesel fundamentals are stronger. The price range of Brent in the fourth quarter is $55 - $65 per barrel, and a high - short strategy is maintained. In the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [5]