广发期货日评-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by various factors such as the December Fed FOMC meeting, employment data, and the Politburo meeting. Different varieties in the futures market show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillatory movements [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Equity Index Futures - With the likely scenario of continued interest - rate cuts due to weak employment data and a positive Politburo meeting, A - share major indices have stabilized. After confirming the stage bottom, low volatility is expected to be followed by an increase in volatility. It's difficult to conduct short - term unilateral futures long operations, and one can lightly and gradually lay out bull spreads of CSI 1000 put options on pullbacks [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 10 - year treasury bond faces resistance near 1.85%, and the T2603 contract may find support around 107.6. The 30 - 10Y spread has reached a high this year, but unfavorable factors in ultra - long - term varieties are hard to reverse in the short term. One can lightly test long positions in varieties within 10 years if sentiment improves and avoid 30 - year varieties. It's recommended to wait and see on the unilateral strategy and prefer varieties within 10 years when market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may still tend to steepen [2]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are oscillating around $4200, and one can use the strategy of selling out - of - the - money option straddles to earn time value. Silver has weak physical delivery demand and limited upward momentum. Platinum and palladium price fluctuations have narrowed, and an intraday short - term high - selling and low - buying operation is recommended [2]. Shipping Index Futures - The EC (European Line) main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. Ferrous Metals - For steel, due to steel mill production cuts, a "long - rebar, short - iron ore" arbitrage is recommended, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar should be narrowed. Iron ore is expected to weaken from high - level oscillation as molten iron production drops and port inventories increase. For coking coal, with the expansion of price cuts in the origin and a decline in Mongolian coal prices, the futures price is in a weak downward trend. For coke, the first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trade price has led the decline. All are viewed with a bearish oscillation outlook [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper demand is weakening, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. Long - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can take profits on rallies. Alumina is oscillating around the industry's cash - cost bottom, with limited short - term downside. Aluminum is affected by macro - disturbances, and short - term long positions can be taken on dips. For zinc, due to export - driven tight spot supply, zinc prices are oscillating at a high level, and cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities should be noted. Tin has a strong fundamental situation and is oscillating at a high level, with the idea of holding previous long positions and going long on pullbacks [2]. New Energy - Industrial silicon futures prices have rebounded after a decline, and existing long positions can be held. Polysilicon futures opened lower and closed higher after new delivery brands were added, and it's advisable to wait and see. Lithium carbonate has strengthened again, but there are still large market differences [2]. Chemicals - PX has a tight medium - term supply - demand outlook and strong support. PTA has a near - strong and far - weak supply - demand pattern, with limited rebound space. Short - fiber has a weak supply - demand outlook, and its processing fee is mainly compressed. Bottle - grade polyester chips continue to have a loose supply - demand pattern in December, and the processing fee is expected to be squeezed. Ethanol is still searching for a bottom as port inventories continue to tighten and market sentiment is under pressure. Benzene is in a situation where the port is accumulating inventory, with near - term weakness and long - term strength [2]. Agricultural Products - Corn is under pressure as downstream receiving is sluggish. Palm oil is oscillating, and soybean oil has slightly declined following the external market. Sugar in the northern hemisphere's crushing season is progressing well. Cotton should be monitored according to the USDA supply - demand report. Eggs' production capacity is being reduced slowly. Apples' sales are slowing down. Red dates' supply pressure restricts the rebound of the futures price [2].