2026年宏观经济展望：蓄势待发，向新而行

Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to continue a moderate recovery, with 2025 and 2026 GDP growth projected at 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, reflecting a slowdown from 2024's 3.3%[29] - The IMF has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 down by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8% due to increased tariff disturbances and uncertainties[16] - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. remains high at approximately 19%, contributing to ongoing trade tensions and economic uncertainty[20] Domestic Economic Performance - China's GDP growth for 2025 is projected to be around 5%, with Q1 growth at 5.4%, driven by policy implementation and increased local government bond issuance[36] - In Q3 2025, GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, continuing the trend from Q2's 5.2% growth, influenced by reduced fixed asset investment and external tariff pressures[36] - The contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth reached 56.6% in Q3, indicating a strong domestic demand despite external challenges[41] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Global inflation is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and further to 3.7% in 2026, with significant variations across countries[23] - The U.S. CPI is projected to rise by 2.4% in 2026, remaining above the target level, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[26] - Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have slowed their rate-cutting pace due to resilient inflation and economic activity, with expectations of three rate cuts in 2026[25] Risks and Uncertainties - Key risks include potential overheating of risk asset prices, increased public finance pressures, and the impact of geopolitical tensions on economic stability[33] - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policies poses a significant risk to global economic recovery, with potential for further adjustments in trade routes and economic efficiency[20]