Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases, and the overall inventory accumulation rate narrowing. Overseas shipments arriving at the port remain at a high level, rubber prices are fluctuating downward, tire companies are making appropriate low - price purchases according to demand, the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved, and the warehouse outbound volume has increased slightly month - on - month, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. In terms of demand, as the production of previously overhauled enterprises gradually resumes to normal levels, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month last week, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise is slow, and short - term production control behavior still exists, so the increase in overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,200 in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,985 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract was 12,080 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 1 - 2 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber was 2,905 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 127,685 lots, an increase of 3,726 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - rubber contract was 56,144 lots, an increase of 26,357 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 27,378 lots, an increase of 1,839 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - rubber was - 10,295 lots, a decrease of 4,066 lots. The Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 46,030 tons, unchanged; the 20 - rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 56,752 tons, a decrease of 402 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 15,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,815 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,810 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,380 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai rubber basis was - 365 yuan/ton, unchanged; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 685 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,806 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract was 741 yuan/ton, an increase of 54 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 125 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 23.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 43.2 US dollars/ton, an increase of 70.2 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 126,100 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 256,400 tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.5%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.92%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 39.51 days, a decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 44.95 days, a decrease of 0.28 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying was 13.18%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying was 15.47%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 19.71%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.73%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase of 1.38%. As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251209
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-09 09:30