合成橡胶产业日报-20251209

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The butadiene rubber market this week was mainly affected by news factors of natural rubber and butadiene. With no clear positive factors in the supply - demand fundamentals, downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance. Sample production enterprise inventories increased, and sample trading enterprise inventories decreased slightly. - As the production of previously overhauled enterprises gradually returns to normal, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased last week, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise was slow. In the short term, the production control behavior of enterprises still exists, and the increase in overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. - The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,250 - 10,700 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 10,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The position volume of the main contract was 76,409, an increase of 48,955. The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 4,340 tons, unchanged from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in different regions increased. For example, the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 62.49 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.26 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 58.88 dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.2 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 745 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was 563.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.75 dollars/ton; the price of butadiene (CFR China) was 860 dollars/ton, unchanged. The market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 7,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.94 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 70.4%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 41,100 tons, a decrease of 6,200 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 56.11%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.75 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 73.53%, an increase of 3.34 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 484 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 27,100 tons, an increase of 200 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,230 tons, a decrease of 310 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.51 days, a decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 44.95 days, a decrease of 0.28 days. As of December 4th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 4th, the production of previously overhauled sample enterprises gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. - In November, the domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points. - As of December 4th, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.23 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. Some tight - supply resources were replenished this period, but due to downstream price - pressing, trading was weak. The inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises increased, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly. Some Shandong plants are about to undergo temporary overhauls, which will lead to a slight decrease in supply, and both production and trading enterprise inventories are expected to decrease slightly [2].