沪铜产业日报-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates and declines, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis [2]. - The copper concentrate processing fee index drops again. Due to Chile raising the premium for copper spot in China and domestic CSPT members planning to reduce the capacity load of mined copper by 10% next year, market concerns about the tight supply of copper ore intensify [2]. - On the supply side, the good revenue from smelting by - product sulfuric acid offsets part of the high raw material costs. Smelters are operating well, and the previously affected production capacity is gradually resuming, leading to an increase in the domestic refined copper supply [2]. - On the demand side, the copper price remains strong due to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and raw material cost support. The short - term high - priced copper suppresses the downstream purchasing sentiment, and downstream buyers are becoming more cautious, mostly replenishing stocks based on rigid demand [2]. - In terms of consumption, the year - end sales rush of automobile enterprises and the rush work in the power system provide certain demand resilience for Shanghai copper. The social inventory is still slightly decreasing [2]. - In the options market, the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.23, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0791. The market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines are above the zero axis, and the green bars are expanding. The report suggests light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 91,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,880 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,491.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 144 dollars [2]. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 210,572 lots, a decrease of 19,473 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders in Shanghai copper is - 44,609 lots, a decrease of 10,180 lots; the LME copper inventory is 164,550 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 88,905 tons, a decrease of 9,025 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 63,175 tons, a decrease of 675 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 29,531 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 92,215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 92,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 46 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 41 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract is 1,125 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,795 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 8.19 dollars/ton, a decrease of 14.86 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, a decrease of 13.56 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.86 dollars/thousand tons, a decrease of 0.11 dollars [2]. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 82,470 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 730 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 83,170 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 730 yuan [2]. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The production of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, a decrease of 6.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 62,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of copper products is 200.40 million tons, a decrease of 22.80 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 4,824.34 billion yuan, an increase of 446.27 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, an increase of 5,856.99 billion yuan; the monthly production of integrated circuits is 4,177 million pieces, a decrease of 194,236.10 pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.02%, an increase of 2.47%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.50%, an increase of 0.80% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 20.58%, a decrease of 0.0182; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.23, an increase of 0.0791 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and promoting high - quality development through multiple measures [2]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from January to October 2025, China's automobile exports reached 6.46 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22%. In October, exports were 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 40% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. From January to October 2025, new energy vehicle exports were 2.65 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 54%, higher than the 19% growth rate in the same period in 2024 [2]. - The Fed is scheduled to hold an interest - rate meeting on December 9th and 10th. The market generally expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut. The market will focus on Powell's press - conference Q&A session and the last "dot plot" of the year [2]. - According to the General Administration of Customs, in the first 11 months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In November, the total import and export value was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2]