瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20251209

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 9th, the closing price of the coking coal 2605 contract was 1082.5, down 2.21%. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan Mongolian No.5 coking coal was 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The content of the Politburo meeting was weaker than expected, and the short - term market sentiment of coking coal weakened. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend was weak [2]. - On December 9th, the closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1514.0, down 2.70%. The first round of price cuts in the coke spot market was implemented. In November, China imported 4405.3 million tons of coal and lignite, an increase of 231.6 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.5%. The coke inventory was moderately weak. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend was weak [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1082.50 yuan/ton, down 11.00; the closing price of the J main contract was 1514.00 yuan/ton, down 23.00. The JM futures contract open interest was 809682.00 lots, down 34932.00; the J futures contract open interest was 48217.00 lots, up 570.00. The net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 89444.00 lots, up 4279.00; the net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts was - 165.00 lots, up 215.00. The JM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 98.50 yuan/ton, up 7.50; the J 5 - 1 month contract spread was 163.00 yuan/ton, up 9.50. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 300.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 2070.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Mongolian No.5 raw coal was 970.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00; the price of Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke was 1830.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 161.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1430.00 yuan/ton, down 70.00; the price of Tianjin Port Grade I metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 527.50 yuan/ton, up 11.00; the basis of the J main contract was 316.00 yuan/ton, up 23.00 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of refined coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.10 million tons, up 0.50; the weekly inventory of refined coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 321.40 million tons, up 16.10. The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, unchanged. The monthly raw coal output was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50. The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4405.30 million tons, up 231.30. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 190.40 million tons, down 0.90. The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 470.60 million tons, up 5.60; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 245.80 million tons, down 1.40. The weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1009.20 million tons, down 1.10; the weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 798.27 million tons, down 3.03. The weekly inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 76.44 million tons, up 4.68; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 625.25 million tons, down 0.27. The weekly available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.88 days, down 0.13; the weekly available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.29 days, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00. The monthly output of coking coal was 4231.51 million tons, up 255.59. The weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.84%, up 0.89. The weekly profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was 30.00 yuan/ton, down 16.00. The monthly output of coke was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 80.14%, down 0.93; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.06%, down 0.90. The monthly crude steel output was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of December 8th, 9 provinces mentioned steel - related content in their "15th Five - Year Plan" proposals, including accelerating the transformation of steel from raw material - level to material - level, accelerating the implementation of energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation and digital and intelligent transformation in the steel industry, and strengthening the efficient utilization of scrap steel. - The Federal Reserve was scheduled to hold an interest - rate meeting on December 9th and 10th. The market generally believed that the Federal Reserve was likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again. - The Politburo meeting stated that next year's economic work should adhere to making steady progress and improving quality and efficiency, better coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, and better coordinate development and security; continue to implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and give play to the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that despite the long - term government shutdown, the US would end 2025 with a real GDP growth rate of 3%. It was expected that the inflation rate would "drop significantly" next year. The bond market had just had its best year since 2020 [2].