铂钯金期货日报-20251209

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The platinum and palladium futures main contracts fluctuated weakly in intraday trading, with platinum's decline greater than palladium's. In the short - term, the realization of the interest - rate cut expectation may continue the price correction. In the long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectation, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the long - term expansion of hydrogen economy demand. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the popularization of electric vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price. The current low price of palladium may make it a cost - effective choice again, and there may be a follow - up catch - up rally. The London platinum spot is expected to face resistance at $1750 per ounce and support at $1500 per ounce; the London palladium spot may encounter resistance at $1500 per ounce and support at $1350 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 436.40 yuan/gram, down 5.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 380.45 yuan/gram, down 1.80 yuan. The main contract holding volume of platinum was 10,387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the main contract holding volume of palladium was 3,179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 431.08 yuan/gram, down 4.22 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price was 376.50 yuan/gram, up 16.50 yuan. The platinum main contract basis was - 5.32 yuan/gram, up 1.53 yuan; the palladium main contract basis was - 3.95 yuan/gram, up 18.30 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 99.11, up 0.12; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.91%, up 0.03%. The VIX volatility index was 16.66, up 1.25 [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed is scheduled to hold an interest - rate meeting on December 9th and 10th, and the market generally expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut. Japan's Q3 real GDP was revised down to a 0.6% quarterly contraction and a 2.3% annual contraction. Japan's nominal wages rose 2.6% year - on - year in October, but real wages after inflation fell for the tenth consecutive month. The European Central Bank's hawkish Executive Board member Schnabel believes that economic and inflation risks are skewed upwards and is satisfied with the market's bet on the ECB's next rate hike [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - On December 9th at 19:00, the US November NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; at 23:00, the US October JOLTs Job Openings (in millions). On December 11th at 03:00, the Fed will announce the December FOMC meeting interest - rate decision [2]