新引擎，新航道：人民币机构资本重塑中国商业地产投资格局

Investment Trends - Insurance capital has become the backbone of RMB capital, significantly investing in industrial logistics, retail, office buildings, and complexes, with a total investment of over 1,370 billion RMB in industrial logistics alone[7] - The proportion of insurance capital in large transactions has risen sharply, approaching 100% in the first half of 2025, as foreign investment activity declines due to geopolitical factors[19][20] Market Dynamics - The vacancy rate for long-term rental apartments is expected to stabilize around 15% by 2028, with a peak supply of rental housing anticipated in 2025[10] - The supply of high-standard warehouses is projected to decrease by nearly 60% from 2026 to 2028 compared to the previous three years, leading to improved vacancy rates[74] REITs Development - By October 2025, a total of 76 public REITs had been issued, with a cumulative scale of 2,059 billion RMB, of which 1,100 billion RMB was from property rights REITs, accounting for 53.42% of total issuance[52] - The asset types for public REITs have expanded to include commercial real estate, with significant participation from various sectors including logistics, retail, and data centers[63][64] Rental Market Insights - The average rent for long-term rental apartments in Shanghai has decreased by 2.5% in the first three quarters of 2025, while the occupancy rate remains above 85%[86] - The penetration rate of centralized long-term rental apartments in Shanghai is currently only 11.5%, indicating substantial growth potential in this market segment[94]