油脂油料早报-20251210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 12 - month USDA report shows stable data for 2025/26 US soybean production, area, and other aspects compared to November estimates [1]. - Global 2025/26 soybean production and ending stocks are slightly higher than November estimates [1]. - US soybean crush capacity has expanded, and analysts expect the US October soybean crush volume to reach a record high [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 2025/26 US Soybean Information - Production: Estimated at 4253 million bushels, same as November estimate [1]. - Sown area: 81.1 million acres, unchanged from November [1]. - Harvested area: 80.3 million acres, same as November estimate [1]. - Yield: 53 bushels per acre, consistent with November [1]. - Exports: Estimated at 1635 million bushels, unchanged [1]. - Ending stocks: 290 million bushels, same as November [1]. 2025/26 Global Soybean Information - Brazil: Production estimated at 175 million tons, exports at 112.5 million tons, both unchanged from November [1]. - Argentina: Production estimated at 48.5 million tons, exports at 8.25 million tons, unchanged [1]. - China: Imports estimated at 112 million tons, same as November [1]. - Global: Production estimated at 422.54 million tons (up from 421.75 million tons in November), ending stocks at 122.37 million tons (up from 121.99 million tons in November) [1]. Other Information - Unplantable US soybean area: 1.268 million acres in December report, up from 1.262 million acres in September [1]. - US October soybean crush: Analysts expect it to reach a record - high 234.2 million bushels, 8.6% higher than in October 2024 [1]. - US October 31 soybean oil inventory: Based on average of three analysts, estimated at 1717 million pounds, 7.8% higher than in October 2024 [1]. - Brazil December soybean exports: Expected to be 3.33 million tons (up from 2.81 million tons last week) [1]. - Brazil December soybean meal exports: Expected to be 1.83 million tons (up from 1.33 million tons last week) [1]. - Argentina: Reduced soybean export tax from 26% to 24%, and soybean by - product export tax from 24.5% to 22.5% [1]. - Global 2025/26 rapeseed: Production estimated at 95.273 million tons (up 9.274 million tons year - on - year), ending stocks at 12.499 million tons (up 2.649 million tons year - on - year) [1]. Spot Prices | Date | Soybean Meal (Jiangsu) | Rapeseed Meal (Guangdong) | Soybean Oil (Jiangsu) | Palm Oil (Guangzhou) | Rapeseed Oil (Jiangsu) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/03 | 3020 | 2510 | 8580 | 8680 | 10000 | | 2025/12/04 | 3020 | 2520 | 8520 | 8620 | 9890 | | 2025/12/05 | 3020 | 2500 | 8540 | 8720 | 9870 | | 2025/12/08 | 3020 | 2500 | 8500 | 8660 | 9760 | | 2025/12/09 | 3000 | 2460 | 8450 | 8570 | 9630 | [2]