芳烃橡胶早报-20251210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views - PTA: Near - term TA device runs stably, polyester load rises slightly, inventory remains stable, and basis is stable. In the future, the terminal weakening accelerates, polyester load may reach a turning point, TA inventory may gradually accumulate again, but the overall pressure is not large and the valuation is not high. Short - term wait - and - see, long - term pay attention to buying on dips due to good PX pattern [2]. - MEG: Near - term domestic maintenance and restart co - exist, overseas devices reduce load, port inventory accumulates. After the EG price drops again, coal - based losses intensify, and the supply reduction has not reversed the inventory accumulation trend. Short - term valuation is low but the driving force is limited, and the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [2]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: Near - term device runs stably, inventory decreases. Demand from the polyester yarn end remains stable, and short - fiber exports maintain high growth. Short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long run as downstream enters the off - season and new devices are about to be put into production. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt situation [2]. - Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber: The national explicit inventory is stable and at a low level, and the Thai cup - lump price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Category PTA - Price and Margin Data: From 2025/12/03 to 2025/12/09, crude oil price decreased from 62.7 to 61.9, PTA internal - market spot price remained at 4650, PTA processing margin increased from 143 to 162 and then decreased back to 125, and polyester gross margin increased from 30 to 50. The basis was - 35 at the beginning and - 28 at the end, and the sales - to - production ratio increased from 0.40 to 0.60 [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - term TA device runs stably with the same start - up rate, polyester load rises slightly, inventory remains stable, basis is stable, and spot processing fee improves. PX domestic start - up rate is stable, overseas devices are stable, PXN strengthens, disproportionation and isomerization benefits improve, and the US - Asia aromatics spread remains [2]. MEG - Price and Margin Data: From 2025/12/03 to 2025/12/09, Northeast Asian ethylene price remained at 745, MEG internal - market price decreased from 3840 to 3699, and MEG coal - based profit decreased from - 531 to - 592. The MEG internal - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased from - 775 to - 987 [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - term domestic maintenance and restart co - exist, start - up rate decreases slightly, overseas devices reduce load, port inventory accumulates at the beginning of next week, the basis weakens, and coal - based benefits weaken again [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Data: From 2025/12/03 to 2025/12/09, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased from 6425 to 6355, and the short - fiber profit increased from 102 to 148 [2]. - Device and Market Situation: Near - term device runs stably with a start - up rate of 97.5%, sales - to - production ratio is basically stable, and inventory decreases. The polyester yarn end start - up rate is stable, raw material inventory decreases, and finished - product inventory accumulates, and the benefits remain [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Price Data: From 2025/12/03 to 2025/12/09, the US - dollar Thai standard spot price decreased from 1805 to 1800, the Shanghai whole - latex price decreased from 14510 to 14390, and the RU main contract price decreased from 15210 to 14985 [2]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory is stable and at a low level, and the Thai cup - lump price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping [2]. Styrene - Price and Margin Data: From 2025/12/03 to 2025/12/09, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) price remained at 745, pure benzene (CFR China) price increased from 672 to 686, and styrene (CFR China) price decreased from 838 to 828. Styrene domestic profit decreased from - 27 to - 1411 [2][5].