LPG早报-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, its operation is firm, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand, so there is still short - term support. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Tuesday, for civil gas, the price in East China was 4392 (-9), in Shandong was 4450 (-50), and in South China was 4440 (-20). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4550 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 149 (+58), and the 01 - 02 month spread was 77 (+6). As of 21:00, FEI was 525 (-3) and CP was 511 (+3) dollars/ton [1] Weekly View - The futures market fluctuated, with a basis of 143 (+232), a 01 - 02 month spread of 79 (+3), and a 03 - 04 month spread of -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 lots (-200). Civil gas prices rose, and the cheapest deliverable product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The overseas FEI declined, while CP and MB rose, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and overseas markets weakened, with PG - CP dropping to 100 (-21) and PG - FEI dropping to 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The landing premium for propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the US were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit dropped; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated. Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in incoming vessels (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories slightly increased (+0.86%). The PDH operation rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operation rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operation rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]