建信期货生猪日报-20251210

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 10, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The high utilization rate of second - fattening pens and the planned increase in December's slaughter volume add supply pressure before the Spring Festival. On the demand side, there is still a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December, and terminal consumption is rising, with an increase in slaughter volume [9]. - Spot prices mainly fluctuate as the supply - demand both increase, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening is weak. Futures prices are under pressure from double supply, but there is a low - level rebound sentiment due to increased northern epidemics, increasing the frequency of bottom - range fluctuations [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 9th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened flat, then fluctuated upwards, and closed with a positive candle. The highest price was 11,495 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,370 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,450 yuan/ton, up 1.55% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 11,377 lots to 361,369 lots [8]. - Spot Market: On the 9th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.33 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - Supply - Demand Analysis: Supply is expected to increase slightly in the long - term. In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%. Demand is rising, with an increase in pickling, enema, and fresh sales. On the 9th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 182,300 heads, a decrease of 300 heads from the previous day, an increase of 6,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 19,000 heads month - on - month [9]. 2. Industry News - Not provided in the given content 3. Data Overview - Slaughter Volume: In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13]. - Breeding Profit: As of the week ending December 4, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 135.01 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.88 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was - 273 yuan/head, an increase of 2 yuan/head week - on - week [13]. - Breeding Cost: As of the week ending December 4, the cost of purchasing 110kg pigs for fattening to 140kg was 11.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125kg pigs for fattening to 150kg was 11.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - Average Slaughter Weight: As of the week ending December 4, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.82kg, an increase of 0.60kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. Among them, the average slaughter weight of group - owned farms was 124.71kg, an increase of 0.16kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and the average slaughter weight of散户 was 146.08kg, an increase of 0.91kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [13].