建信期货棉花日报-20251210

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: December 10, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou Cotton: The price of Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating and adjusting. The latest price index of Grade 328 cotton is 14,999 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The internal transaction basis of 3129/28B/less than 3% impurity of machine - picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang for the 2025/26 season is around CF01 + 950, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7]. - Pure Cotton Yarn Market: The market is still in a weak trading atmosphere, mainly for rigid demand. Except for high - count yarns with good sales, some spinning mills reported a slight improvement in the sales of low - count yarns [7]. - Cotton Grey Cloth Market: The sales of cotton grey cloth are still weak. The inventory of cotton weavers has accumulated, the loom operation rate is stable, and the overall market improvement is not obvious. The main goal is to actively digest inventory and the willingness to ship is dominant [7]. - Overseas Market: As of the week ending December 5, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.0085 million tons, accounting for 65.7% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 11% slower than the same period last year. The inspection volume of U.S. cotton is currently slower than the same period last year, and the export contracts improved significantly in early November. The current supply - demand contradiction in the international market is not prominent. Future attention should be paid to the interest rate cut situation and the adjustment of the December USDA supply - demand report [8]. - Domestic Market: On the supply side, there are limited changes, and the commercial inventory is still in the seasonal accumulation stage, reaching 4.6836 million tons as of the end of November. On the demand side, the profits and cash flow of downstream spinning mills are acceptable, and the pressure on finished product inventory is not large. Recently, due to the tight transportation capacity out of Xinjiang, the willingness to purchase spot goods in inland warehouses has increased. In November, textile and clothing exports improved significantly month - on - month after the easing of trade relations, but were still weak year - on - year. In the short term, the price will fluctuate and adjust during the contract roll - over, and the upward trend of the pressure level remains unchanged [8] Group 3: Industry News - Textile and Clothing Exports in November 2025: China's total textile and clothing exports in November 2025 were 23.869 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 7.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 267.795 billion US dollars (273.012 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. In November 2025, China's exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 12.276 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 9.0% and a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 130.009 billion US dollars (128.815 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In November 2025, China's exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 11.594 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 137.787 billion US dollars (144.197 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, USD/CNY exchange rate, and USD/INR exchange rate [7][18][19][28][30]