建信期货工业硅日报-20251210

Group 1: Report Date - The report date is December 10, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price broke through the support level and declined rapidly. The market is expected to continue its bearish trend, and it is advisable to adopt a bearish approach and not to bottom - fish. Attention should be paid to changes in positions rather than price changes. Consider taking profits on short positions when the basis widens significantly [4][5] Group 4: Market Performance Summary - Si2601 closed at 8340 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.47%, a trading volume of 323,510 lots, and an open interest of 185,271 lots, with a net decrease of 1,816 lots. SI2605 was priced at 8370 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.68%, a trading volume of 205,898 lots, and an open interest of 164,602 lots, with a net increase of 32,455 lots. The top twenty long positions increased by 21,589 lots, and the short positions increased by 17,045 lots [4] - The spot prices continued to weaken. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9300 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan 553 was 9150 yuan/ton. The price of Sichuan 421 was 9900 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9500 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9500 yuan/ton [4] Group 5: Market Outlook Summary - The bearish fundamental drivers are still insufficient compared to the decline in the futures price. The commodity index dropped significantly by 0.89%, with large declines in non - ferrous metals and coking coal and coke prices. Since last Friday, the gradually decreasing rebound highs have shown a bearish structure, and the market is expected to continue its bearish trend after breaking through the support level yesterday. Short - position funds increased consistently during the roll - over of near and far - month contracts [5] - On the supply side, it is approaching the seasonal low, and the expected output in December is about 350,000 tons. On the demand side, the weakening expectation is being realized. The weekly output of polysilicon was 26,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3%. The average operating load rate of silicone monomers was 74.29%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from last week. In addition, the alloy demand has entered the seasonal off - season [5] Group 6: Market News Summary - On December 9, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 7,528 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - Experts predict that China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy next year. The fiscal deficit rate will not be lower than 4% in 2025, and the new government debt will exceed about 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025, possibly between 1.3 trillion and 1.6 trillion yuan. The national general public budget expenditure is expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan next year [6]