永安期货有色早报-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - Copper: Maintain a bullish stance on dips, with expected price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1] - Aluminum: Positive outlook due to overseas rate - cut expectations, with supply - demand expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [1] - Zinc: Suggest a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [7] - Nickel: Given the short - term weak fundamentals, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [8][9] - Stainless Steel: With a weak fundamental outlook, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [12] - Lead: Expect prices to oscillate between $17,100 - $17,600 next week, and be cautious due to low - warehouse receipt risks [14] - Tin: High - level oscillation is likely in the short term, and it can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026 [17] - Industrial Silicon: Prices are expected to oscillate in December and move in a cyclical bottom - oscillation pattern in the long term [19] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term supply - demand is strong. The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding intentions [21] Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Spread: LME cash - 3m spread rose significantly, and copper prices exceeded $11,000. The structural supply - demand gap persists, and inventory is unevenly distributed globally [1] - Domestic Situation: High prices have curbed actual consumption, with a slight inventory build - up expected until the Spring Festival. The monthly spread and import profit window are restricted [1] - Outlook: Pay attention to the FOMC meeting in December. Maintain a bullish stance on dips, with expected price range of $10,800 - $12,000 [1] Aluminum - Price and Inventory: Prices increased, and the spot basis declined. Aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, while aluminum products continued to reduce inventory [1] - Supply - Demand: Overseas rate - cut expectations are positive. Supply is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [1] Zinc - Price and Spread: Zinc prices rose, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined. The spot premium in the domestic market increased [5][6][7] - Supply: Domestic and imported TC are declining rapidly. Some smelters are under maintenance in December, with an expected output reduction of 15,000 - 18,000 tons [7] - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while US zinc imports have increased recently. The export window is opening [7] - Strategy: Wait - and - see for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage and 01 - 03 positive arbitrage opportunities [7] Nickel - Price and Inventory: Prices were relatively stable, and both domestic and overseas inventories increased [8] - Supply - Demand: Supply is slightly reduced, demand is weak, and the Jinchuan premium is strong [8] - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to short - term weak fundamentals [8][9] Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory: Prices were mostly stable, and inventory remained at a high level [12] - Supply - Demand: Supply is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and costs are relatively stable [12] - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to weak fundamentals [12] Lead - Price and Spread: Prices rebounded. The refined - scrap spread returned to - 50 [13][14] - Supply: Primary lead production is high, and secondary lead production has recovered, alleviating the supply shortage [14] - Demand: Battery production is stable, and demand is expected to weaken [14] - Strategy: Prices are expected to oscillate between $17,100 - $17,600 next week. Be cautious due to low - warehouse receipt risks [14] Tin - Price and Inventory: Prices increased, and LME inventory decreased [17] - Supply: Mining processing fees are low, and overseas production recovery is slow. However, high prices stimulate inventory exports [17] - Demand: Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and downstream acceptance of prices has increased [17] - Strategy: High - level oscillation is likely in the short term, and it can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026 [17] Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory: Prices oscillated weakly, and inventory was stable [19] - Supply - Demand: Southwest production is reducing to support prices, and supply - demand is balanced in December. In the long term, over - capacity persists [19] Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory: Prices declined, and inventory is high in the intermediate and battery raw material links [21] - Supply - Demand: Supply and demand are both strong in the short term. The de - stocking scale is expected to be 5,000 - 6,000 tons if Ningde resumes production in December [21] - Outlook: The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding intentions [21]