大越期货玻璃早报-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. With supply stabilizing at a low level, dismal orders from downstream deep - processing factories, and rising inventories in glass factories, it is expected that the glass will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - The glass fundamentals show that production profit repair is weak, supply contraction is less than expected, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real - estate drag, and inventory is at a historical high in the same period. The basis indicates that futures are at a premium to the spot. The inventory is above the 5 - year average and decreasing. The price is below the 20 - day line with the line trending down. The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions. Overall, it is expected to be mainly weak and volatile in the short term [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - Likely to be positive: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs lead to production losses [4]. - Likely to be negative: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original - sheet inventory [5]. 3. Main Logic - The glass supply stabilizes at a low level, downstream deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories rise. It is expected that the glass will mainly show a weak and volatile trend at a low level [6]. 4. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1002 yuan/ton to 984 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.80%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - panel glass decreased from 984 yuan/ton to 972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22%. The main basis decreased from - 18 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.33% [7]. 5. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - panel in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [14]. 6. Fundamental - Cost Side - No specific content on the cost side other than mentioning glass production profit is provided. 7. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 220, with an operating rate of 74.51%. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,200 tons, and both the number of operating production lines and production capacity are at historical lows in the same period [25][27]. 8. Fundamental - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [30]. 9. Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 59.442 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.68% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is operating above the 5 - year average [43]. 10. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, and other indicators. For example, in 2024E, production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, consumption is 53.1 million tons, with a production growth rate of 3.94% and a consumption growth rate of - 1.15% [44].