广发早知道：汇总版-20251210

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Various commodities in the market show different trends and outlooks. Some commodities are expected to be strong, some are in a tight - balance or weak situation, and investors should adjust their strategies according to different market conditions [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Category Daily Selections - Tin: With strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong this year. Hold existing long positions and consider buying on dips. Monitor US interest rate decisions and supply - side changes [2] - Styrene: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with limited upside. It is expected to be weak in the short - term. Pay attention to device changes and actual export transactions [3] - Coking Coal: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is weak. Consider short - term short positions and a long - coke short - coking - coal arbitrage [4] - Corn: The supply is increasing, and the futures price is weak. Participate in the short - term and pay attention to the continuity of shipments [5] Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - The stock index opened low and closed low, while the ChiNext and STAR Market showed an upward trend. The market is affected by domestic and overseas policies and capital flows. Consider a bullish spread strategy on CSI 1000 put options on dips [6][7][8] Bond Futures - Bond futures rose across the board. The market may return to a volatile state in the short - term. Temporarily observe and focus on the central economic work conference. Consider participating in bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years [9][10][11] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Precious metals generally rose, with silver hitting a new high. Gold may oscillate around $4,200. Be cautious when chasing high on silver. Consider a low - buying strategy for platinum [12][13][14] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index showed an upward trend. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [16] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Global inventory imbalance drives price increases. Long - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be closed on rallies. Pay attention to inventory changes and squeeze risks [17][18][21] - Alumina: Supply is in excess, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Short - term traders can consider light - position long positions or selling out - of - the - money put options [22][23] - Aluminum: Affected by macro factors, prices are expected to be strong in the short - term but may pull back. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and inventory changes [24][26][27] - Aluminum Alloy: Cost support is strong, but demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in a narrow range at a high level. Consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [27][28][29] - Zinc: TC is falling, and exports are improving the supply - demand structure. The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and inventory changes [29][30][33] - Tin: Fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to be strong. Hold existing long positions and buy on dips [33][34][37] - Nickel: The surplus is narrowing, but the upside is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Pay attention to macro and industrial policies [37][38][39] - Stainless Steel: Supply pressure is slightly relieved, but demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate and repair. Pay attention to the implementation of steel mill production cuts and raw material prices [40][42][43] - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a state of divergence, and prices are expected to oscillate widely. Observe the market [44][45][46] - Polysilicon: Affected by the news of the establishment of a storage platform, futures prices are rising. However, demand is weak, and prices may fall. Observe the market [47][48][49] - Industrial Silicon: Prices are falling. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. Consider closing positions [50][51][52] Black Metals - Steel: Raw material price drops drag down steel prices. Consider closing long - rebar short - iron - ore positions and continue to hold the strategy of narrowing the hot - rolled and rebar spread [52][53][56] - Iron Ore: Iron production is falling, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider short - selling on rallies [58][59] - Coking Coal: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is weak. Consider short - term short positions and a long - coke short - coking - coal arbitrage [60][64] - Coke: The first round of price cuts has been implemented, and there is an expectation of further cuts. Consider short - term short positions and a long - coke short - coking - coal arbitrage [65][67][68] Agricultural Products - Meal: The USDA report is lackluster, and the domestic supply is abundant. The price is expected to be weak. Pay attention to domestic procurement trends [69][70][71] - Pig: Spot prices are stabilizing, and the futures market may be slightly strong. However, the overall supply pattern remains unchanged [72][73][74] - Corn: Supply is increasing, and the price is weak. Participate in the short - term and pay attention to shipment continuity [75][76] - Sugar: The international raw sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to oscillate weakly. Observe the market [77][78] - Cotton: The international cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic price is expected to oscillate within a range [79][80] - Egg: Supply is in excess, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, but the downside is limited [83] - Oil: Palm oil and soybean oil prices are affected by various factors and are expected to oscillate. Pay attention to Indian procurement and MPOB reports [84][85] - Jujube: Supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to downstream sales [87] - Apple: The trading volume is slow, and the price is stable. Observe the market [88] Energy and Chemicals - PX: Supply may shrink in the medium - term, and demand is seasonally weak. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 6,600 - 7,000 yuan/ton [89][90] - PTA: Supply - demand is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider a short - term oscillation range of 4,500 - 4,800 yuan/ton and a TA5 - 9 low - level positive spread [91][92][93] - Short - Fiber: Supply - demand is expected to be weak, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. Follow the PTA strategy and consider compressing processing fees on rallies [94] - Bottle Chip: Supply is expected to increase in December, and demand is weak. The price is expected to follow the cost and compress processing fees. Consider a short - term strategy of compressing processing fees [96][97] - Ethylene Glycol: Port inventory is increasing, but domestic production cuts are increasing. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. Consider closing the EG1 - 5 reverse spread [98] - Pure Benzene: Supply is expected to be stable, and demand support is limited. It may follow oil prices and styrene fluctuations. Pay attention to domestic device changes [99][100] - Styrene: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with limited upside. It is expected to be weak in the short - term. Pay attention to device changes and actual export transactions [101][102] - LLDPE: The market sentiment is pessimistic. Observe the inventory and basis [103] - PP: Supply is expected to increase, and the 01 contract has pressure. Pay attention to PDH profit expansion [104] - Methanol: The basis is strong, and trading is okay. Consider reducing the 05MTO position [104] - Caustic Soda: Supply - demand has pressure, and prices are expected to be weak. Hold short positions [105][106] - PVC: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are expected to be weak at the bottom [108] - Soda Ash: Production is high, and supply is in excess. Hold short positions [109][110] - Glass: Spot prices are weakening, and the market has pressure. Treat it bearishly [110][111] - Natural Rubber: Pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. The price is expected to oscillate [112][113] - Synthetic Rubber: Supply in the upstream and mid - stream is abundant, and the price is expected to face pressure. Consider short - selling on rallies [114][116]