大越期货纯碱早报-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly move in a volatile and downward trend in the short term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant with high production from alkali plants and the expected commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II before the year. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. The basis shows futures premium over spot, the price is below the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line pointing downwards, and the main position is net short with short positions decreasing. Overall, the short - term outlook is bearish [2]. Influencing Factors - Likely Factors: Equipment problems lead to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - Negative Factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year, with industry production at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4]. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1120 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% from the previous value. The main basis is - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72.22% from the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1120 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production method is - 220 yuan/ton, both at historical lows [14]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.74%. The weekly production of soda ash is 70.39 tons, including 38.15 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [17][20]. - Capacity Changes: In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity is 750 tons, with an actual commissioning of 100 tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - Production Ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.16% [24]. - Downstream Demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [27]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 153.86 tons, a decrease of 3.07% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [35].