大越期货贵金属早报-20251210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: On the eve of the Fed's interest - rate decision, the number of job openings in the US unexpectedly increased, and risk appetite decreased, causing the gold price to rise slightly. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to around - 4.6 yuan/gram. Based on historical performance, the gold price may reach a stage high on the day before the Fed meeting, so cautious operation is recommended [4]. - Silver: The market is waiting for the Fed meeting, and risk appetite has decreased. Shanghai silver saw an increase of 50,000 lots at night, pushing the silver price to a new high. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to 380 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment remains strong. However, the sustainability of overnight capital inflows is questionable, and attention should be paid to the intraday position changes [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US 10 - year JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The US three major stock indices closed mixed, European three major stock indices closed mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose 0.14% to 99.24, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4236.6 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory remains unchanged, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [4]. - Silver: Before the Fed's interest - rate decision, Shanghai silver saw an increase of 50,000 lots at night. The US three major stock indices closed mixed, European three major stock indices closed mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose 0.14% to 99.24, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.72% to $61.16 per ounce. The basis is neutral, the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and Powell's speech early the next morning, and China's November CPI, speeches by the ECB president and officials, and the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer's defense of the tax - increase plan today. The market is waiting for the Fed's meeting decision, and the increase in job openings in October has cooled risk appetite, causing the gold price to rise slightly. Be cautious as the gold price may reach a stage high on the day before the Fed meeting [4]. - Silver: The market is waiting for the Fed meeting, and the increase in positions at night has pushed the silver price to a new high. The sustainability of capital inflows is questionable, and attention should be paid to intraday position changes [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Events: At 09:30, China's November CPI and PPI; the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer will attend a hearing to defend a £26 billion tax - increase budget; at 18:45, the Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak; at 18:55, the ECB President Lagarde will speak in London; at 20:30, ECB Governing Council member Sharon Donnery will host a panel discussion; at 22:45, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest - rate decision; early the next morning, various central bank officials will speak, and the Fed will announce its FOMC interest - rate decision, economic outlook, and the US November government budget, followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Powell; at 05:30, the Central Bank of Brazil will announce its interest - rate decision [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 4.82, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures is 91,299 kg and remains unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it; the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [4]. - Silver: The basis is - 5, the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 18,497 kg to 717,788 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it; the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [5]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing. The long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 3.02% to 173,310 lots, the short position decreased by 1.39% to 58,766 lots, and the net long position decreased by 3.83% to 114,544 lots [4][29]. - Silver: The main net position is long, and the long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 0.70% to 406,455 lots, the short position decreased by 1.81% to 300,238 lots, and the net long position increased by 2.56% to 106,217 lots [5][31]. - ETF Positions: The SPDR gold ETF position decreased slightly, while the silver ETF position increased again [33][35]. - Warehouse Receipts: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to increase and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts started to decrease [37][38][40].