Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined due to the shutdown of some western plants, and the comprehensive inventory has decreased with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The agricultural and industrial demands are mainly on - demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has significantly increased year - on - year, and the winter storage demand is strong, boosting the market sentiment. However, the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea main contract will show a weak and downward trend today, and the market will fluctuate weakly [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Daily production and operating rate down, inventory down, demand on - demand, winter storage strong, but overall oversupply, spot 1680 (-10), fundamentals neutral [5]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 37, and the premium/discount ratio is 2.2%, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: UR comprehensive inventory is 139.6 million tons (-6.8), which is bearish [5]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [5]. - Main Position: The net short position of the UR main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [5]. - Expectation: The urea main contract is weakly downward, industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is de - stocking, and the domestic oversupply is obvious. It is expected to fluctuate weakly today [5]. - Leverage Factors: Bullish factor is inventory de - stocking; bearish factors are domestic oversupply and new high in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and domestic demand marginal changes [6]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot | Spot delivery product price is 1680 (-10), Shandong spot is 1690 (0), Henan spot is 1680 (0), FOB China is 2765 [7]. | | Futures | 01 contract price is 1643 (-3), UR05 is 1711 (1), UR09 is 1721 (-3), basis is 37 (-7) [7]. | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 11477 (-49), UR comprehensive inventory is 139.6 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 129.1 million tons, UR port inventory is 10.5 million tons [7]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]
大越期货尿素早报-20251210
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-12-10 02:13