大越期货豆粕早报-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is neutral, with factors like uncertain Chinese purchases of US soybeans, South American soybean production expectations, and domestic demand and inventory conditions influencing the price [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4040 - 4140. The market is neutral, affected by factors such as Chinese soybean - purchasing policies, South American weather, and domestic soybean production and demand [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills dropped from a high in November. Affected by factors such as normal US soybean harvesting weather and the preliminary trade agreement, soybean meal has returned to range - bound oscillation [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing price expectations. The soybean meal market is in a range - bound oscillation influenced by US soybean trends and the off - season of demand [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Affected by factors such as the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the preliminary China - US trade agreement, soybean meal will maintain range - bound oscillation in the short term [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors for Soybean Meal - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans [14]. - There is no pressure on the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills [14]. - There are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. Bearish Factors for Soybean Meal - The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in November [15]. - Brazilian soybeans have started planting, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. Bullish Factors for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [16]. - The expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports price expectations [16]. Bearish Factors for Soybeans - Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans [16]. - The increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated and increased [33]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also showed certain fluctuations [34]. - Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different years and periods is presented, including the comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report: The planting area, yield, production, and other data of soybeans in the US in the past six months are provided, as well as the production data of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [46]. - Arrival Volume of Imported Soybeans: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025 is presented, showing that the arrival volume decreased from a high in November 2025 but increased overall year - on - year [49]. - Inventory and Production of Oil Mills: The soybean inventory of oil mills remains at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have dropped to a low level, and the demand for stockpiling has decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has dropped from a high, and the soybean meal production in September increased year - on - year [50][52][54]. - Cost and Profit: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has oscillated and increased following US soybeans, and the on - market profit has fluctuated slightly [56]. - Pig - Breeding Situation: The pig inventory has maintained an upward trend, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. The pig price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly. The domestic pig - breeding profit has decreased slightly [58][60][62][64]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.