大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate last week was 21,939 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.33%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased. The cost of external purchase of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica led to losses, while the salt - lake end had sufficient profit margins and high production motivation. The overall situation was a tight balance between supply and demand, with emotional fluctuations caused by news. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate was expected to fluctuate in the range of 89,200 - 92,800 yuan/ton [8][9][10][14]. - Bullish factors included the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Bearish factors were the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week's lithium carbonate output was 21,939 tons, up 0.33% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the output was 95,350 physical tons, and the predicted output for the next month was 98,210 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00%. The import volume in November was 25,500 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month was 27,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88% [8][10]. - Demand: The inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises last week was 103,681 tons, down 0.63% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 18,842 tons, down 2.68% week - on - week. It was expected that the demand would strengthen next month and the inventory would be reduced [8]. - Cost: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 94,487 yuan/ton, up 0.01% day - on - week, resulting in a loss of 3,021 yuan/ton; the cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 93,100 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - week, resulting in a loss of 3,898 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end was generally higher than that at the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Comprehensive Evaluation: Fundamentals were neutral; the basis on December 9th showed that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 50 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, also neutral; inventory was neutral; the disk was neutral; the main position was net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Market Overview: The prices of most lithium - related products declined, such as lithium carbonate futures closing price, which decreased by 2.29%. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1.52% [15]. - Supply - side Data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 75.34%, unchanged. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in November 2025 was 95,350 tons, up 3.35% month - on - month. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 531,013 tons, up 2.02% month - on - month, and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,880.69 tons, up 21.86% month - on - month [19]. - Demand - side Data: The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate was 348,500 tons, up 5.14% month - on - month. The monthly export volume of lithium iron phosphate was 5,476,869 kg, up 77.13% month - on - month. The monthly output of ternary precursor and ternary material showed different trends, and the monthly power battery loading volume was 84,100 GWh, up 10.66% month - on - month [19].