大越期货菜粕早报-20251210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2280 - 2340. It is currently in an oscillatory state, influenced by soybean meal trends, technical adjustments, and the pending final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak demand season for rapeseed meal has passed, the low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the short - term trend will maintain an oscillatory pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal futures have rebounded, and the spot price has followed the fluctuations, with a slight change in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has slightly widened. The arrival of imported rapeseed in November has no shipping schedule forecast, and the import cost has been affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are both at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume has remained at zero [18][20][23]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight. The demand side is gradually decreasing, which suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but the China - Canada trade issue has reduced short - term exports and the domestic supply is expected to decrease. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports found it to be established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offsetting each other. The global geopolitical conflict may still rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability that China and Canada will reach a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff battle on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price data: The report provides the trading average price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from December 1st to 9th, as well as the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. It also shows the prices of rapeseed meal futures (near - month 2601 and main 2605) and the spot price in Fujian during the same period [13][15]. - Inventory data: As of a certain period, the rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from 2.2 tons last year [9]. - Aquaculture data: The price of aquatic fish has slightly decreased, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data The main long positions of rapeseed meal have decreased, but the capital has flowed in [9].