贝莱德-2026年全球投资展望2025年12月-2026 Outlook-BII+China Equity-qw _STAMPED

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight rating on U.S. equities, citing strong corporate earnings support despite policy-induced volatility and supply constraints [99]. Core Insights - The report highlights that U.S. economic activity is being supported by ongoing investments in artificial intelligence (AI), which is seen as a new anchor for the economy and a driver of current investment returns [21]. - It notes that while the overall inflation rate has decreased, there has been a strong rebound in commodity inflation, particularly in sectors heavily reliant on imports [14]. - The report emphasizes the need for stable foreign capital to maintain U.S. debt sustainability and warns that rapid supply chain restructuring could cause significant disruptions [10]. Summary by Sections U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty - The report discusses the significant increase in the U.S. economic policy uncertainty index from 1985 to 2025, indicating a high level of uncertainty affecting economic stability [5][3]. U.S. Fiscal Balance - It presents projections for the U.S. fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP from 1990 to 2034, highlighting a trend of increasing fiscal deficits [8][7]. Trade Policies and Supply Chains - The report outlines two key rules governing U.S. trade policy: the necessity of stable foreign funding for debt sustainability and the potential shocks from rapid supply chain changes [10]. Inflation and Consumer Spending - It notes that inflation in the service sector has begun to rise again after a brief slowdown, with a focus on how economic activity may influence service sector inflation [14]. AI and Economic Growth - The report asserts that AI investments are crucial for supporting U.S. economic growth, with a significant contribution to GDP growth expected from non-residential investments and AI-related sectors [22][28]. Market Performance and Valuation - It highlights that technology sector earnings have been a major driver of U.S. stock market returns, with a focus on the performance of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks [28][34]. Tactical Asset Allocation - The report provides tactical asset allocation views, recommending an overweight position in U.S. equities and a neutral stance on European and emerging market equities, while expressing caution regarding U.S. long-term government bonds due to rising debt servicing costs [99][101]. Japanese Market Outlook - The report expresses a positive outlook on the Japanese stock market, driven by corporate governance reforms and increasing share buybacks, while noting that valuations remain low [46][54]. Emerging Market Bonds - It indicates a preference for emerging market bonds, highlighting improvements in credit quality and the potential for higher yields compared to developed market bonds [75][79].