Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports Group 2: Report Core Views Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, tin prices are expected to remain strong throughout the year. Maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold existing long positions, and consider adding long positions on price pullbacks. Monitor the US interest rate decision and supply - side changes [1] Nickel - After the recent production cuts, the supply surplus has narrowed, but the supply pressure remains strong, limiting the upside potential. Macro factors are improving, but the price driver weakens after the valuation repair. The Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price has declined, and domestic inventory is increasing. In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [2] Stainless Steel - Macroeconomic conditions are temporarily stable, and supply pressure has eased slightly, but demand is weak in the off - season, and inventory reduction is difficult. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate and repair, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Focus on the implementation of steel mill production cuts and raw material price changes [3] Zinc - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the export space has opened, but spot trading is average, causing zinc prices to oscillate. As TC decreases, supply pressure eases, and short - term prices have limited downside. Refined zinc exports tighten the spot market, boosting domestic zinc prices. In the future, if TC stabilizes, zinc production may increase again. Monitor the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract reference range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [5] Copper - Globally, the structural imbalance in copper supply and inventory drives short - term price surges, and price volatility may intensify. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. The main contract should pay attention to the support level of 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton [6] Lithium Carbonate - The current macro environment and fundamentals support prices, but there are limited new driving factors. The market faces the resumption of large - scale production and the sustainability of off - season demand. In the short - term, the price is expected to trade in a wide range, with the main contract reference range of 92,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [8] Aluminum - Alumina supply is in excess, and prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate, with the main contract reference range of 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton. Observe the actual production cut scale and inventory inflection point. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term, trading in the range of 21,500 - 22,200 yuan/ton, but beware of the risk of price pullbacks. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and domestic inventory reduction [9] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range shifting down to 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Consider closing positions if market expectations change [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures may continue to oscillate at high levels. Given the weak demand and significant production cutbacks, if there are no substantial production cuts, the spot price has limited upside potential, and the futures price is more likely to decline towards the spot price. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [11] Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price has limited downside due to strong cost support but is restricted by high inventory and high prices from rising. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a high - level narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton. Monitor the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement rhythm [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - Tin: SMM 1 tin price increased to 316,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.64%; SMM 1 tin premium increased by 200% to 150 yuan/ton [1] - Nickel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased to 120,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.12%; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 1.01% to 4,900 yuan/ton [2] - Stainless Steel: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference increased by 2.17% to 470 yuan/ton [3] - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased to 23,190 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.26%; the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 65 yuan/ton [5] - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased to 92,215 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.09%; the premium decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 95 yuan/ton [6] - Lithium Carbonate: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 92,750 yuan/ton; the basis remained unchanged at 92,750 yuan/ton [8] - Aluminum: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased to 21,880 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.18%; the premium remained unchanged at - 90 yuan/ton [9] - Industrial Silicon: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon decreased to 9,200 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.08%; the basis increased by 37.60% to 860 yuan/ton [10] - Aluminum Alloy: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,600 yuan/ton; the scrap - to - refined price difference in Foshan for crushed primary aluminum increased by 3.86% to 1,829 yuan/ton [12] Inter - month Spreads - Tin: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 42.86% to - 200 yuan/ton [1] - Nickel: The spread of 2601 - 2602 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton [2] - Stainless Steel: The spread of 2601 - 2602 remained unchanged at - 115 yuan/ton [3] - Zinc: The spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [5] - Copper: The spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [6] - Lithium Carbonate: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 1,840 yuan/ton to 1,580 yuan/ton [8] - Aluminum: The spread of AL 2512 - 2601 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [9] - Industrial Silicon: The spread of 2512 - 2601 increased by 8,750 yuan/ton to 75 yuan/ton [10] - Aluminum Alloy: The spread of 2601 - 2602 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [12] Fundamental Data Production - Tin: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49% to 11,632 tons; SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [1] - Nickel: In November, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% to 33,342 tons [2] - Stainless Steel: In November, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons [3] - Zinc: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons [5] - Copper: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 million tons [6] - Lithium Carbonate: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35% to 95,350 tons [8] - Aluminum: In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% to 363.66 million tons [9] - Industrial Silicon: In November, national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 million tons [10] - Polysilicon: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 7.50% to 2.58 million tons; monthly production decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 million tons [11] - Aluminum Alloy: In November, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 million tons; primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84% to 30.27 million tons [12] Import and Export - Tin: In October, refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% to 526 tons; exports decreased by 15.33% to 1,480 tons [1] - Nickel: In October, refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% to 9,741 tons [2] - Stainless Steel: In November, stainless steel imports increased by 3.18% to 12.41 million tons; exports decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [3] - Zinc: In October, refined zinc imports decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons; exports increased by 243.79% to 0.85 million tons [5] - Copper: In October, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [6] - Lithium Carbonate: In October, lithium carbonate imports increased by 21.86% to 23,881 tons; exports increased by 63.05% to 246 tons [8] - Aluminum: In October, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 0.61% to 24.84 million tons; exports decreased by 15.18% to 2.46 million tons [9] - Industrial Silicon: In November, industrial silicon exports decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [10] - Polysilicon: In November, polysilicon imports increased by 11.96% to 0.14 million tons; exports decreased by 27.99% to 0.15 million tons [11] - Aluminum Alloy: In October, unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports decreased by 7.06% to 7.64 million tons; exports increased by 31.49% to 3.09 million tons [12] Inventory - Tin: SHEF weekly inventory increased by 7.96% to 6,865 tons; social inventory increased by 2.39% to 8,012 tons [1] - Nickel: SHFE inventory increased by 4.23% to 42,508 tons; social inventory increased by 2.71% to 56,848 tons [2] - Stainless Steel: 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.06% to 49.20 million tons [3] - Zinc: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 5.75% to 13.60 million tons; LME inventory increased by 0.69% to 5.8 million tons [5] - Copper: Domestic social inventory increased by 0.82% to 16.03 million tons; bonded - area inventory decreased by 12.82% to 7.75 million tons [6] - Lithium Carbonate: In November, lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 23.36% to 64,560 tons [8] - Aluminum: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.17% to 59.50 million tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.48% to 52.6 million tons [9] - Industrial Silicon: National social inventory increased by 1.45% to 55.80 million tons [10] - Polysilicon: Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.56% to 29.10 million tons [11] - Aluminum Alloy: Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 0.54% to 5.53 million tons [12]
《有色》日报-20251210
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-12-10 03:11