供应短缺博弈，降温降息预期支撑金银

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The game of supply shortage has cooled down, and the expectation of interest rate cuts supports the prices of gold and silver [1] - The silver price rally stopped after the sentiment cooled down, but the supply shortage hype will continue to occur repeatedly [59] - Before the Fed's December meeting, the prices of gold and silver will be continuously supported by the interest rate cut expectation and remain strong. After the meeting, the prices may face downward pressure in the short - term [59] - The overall upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged in the long - term, but they may face short - term highs after the Fed meeting [59] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - There are various charts showing the historical data of gold and silver, including the position and trading volume of Shanghai gold and silver indices, price spreads, US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and spot gold - silver ratios [13][15][23] 3.2 Logical Analysis - The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in December continued to rise, reaching 89.2%. The latest "dot plot" showed a stronger dovish signal [33][38] - The supply shortage hype of COMEX silver 12 - contract led to a sharp rise in the silver price, but the possibility of a short squeeze in the New York market is limited [59] - The recovery of the technology sector and the optimistic expectation of the Politburo economic meeting support the silver price [59] 3.3 Fundamental Data - Macroeconomic data of the US, such as GDP growth rate, import and export volume, trade balance, and various PMI indices, are presented [32] - Inflation data including CPI, core CPI, PCE, and core PCE are provided [32] 3.4 Position Data - The long and short positions and net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold and silver increased on December 5, 2025, compared with the previous day [42][43] - CFTC data shows that the net long positions of gold and silver decreased significantly as of October 28 [44] - Gold and silver ETF holdings increased overall but decreased the day before [48] - Shanghai gold and silver inventories continued to increase, COMEX gold inventory decreased, and COMEX silver inventory stopped falling and rebounded slightly [53][54] 3.5 Summary - The prices of gold and silver are affected by factors such as interest rate cut expectations, supply shortage hype, and macro - economic conditions [59] - Although the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, they may face short - term downward pressure after the Fed meeting [59]