广发期货《黑色》日报-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices have dropped, mainly affected by the decline in raw material coking coal prices. The steel fundamentals show a trend of production reduction, and the overall demand is weak. Considering that the coking coal price has not stabilized, it is expected that steel will maintain a weak trend. The support levels for May contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil are around 3,000 yuan and 3,200 yuan respectively. The convergence arbitrage of the January hot-rolled coil - rebar spread can continue to be held, and the long rebar - short iron ore arbitrage should stop profit and exit [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures will fluctuate weakly. The supply side shows an increase in global shipments and a decrease in arrivals at 45 ports. The demand side sees continuous production cuts by steel mills, a decline in hot metal production, and an increase in steel mill overhauls. The market is gradually weakening, and the iron ore valuation is moving down. One - sided short positions can be taken for the 2605 contract, with an operating range of 730 - 780 [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke and coking coal futures are trending weakly. The spot prices of coking coal are falling, and the coke price adjustment lags behind coking coal. The supply side of coking coal shows reduced production and increased inventory, while the demand side is weak due to steel mill overhauls. For coke, the supply - demand situation is weakening. The strategy is to take a bearish view on both unilaterally, with the range for coke being 1450 - 1600 and for coking coal being 1000 - 1150, and recommend the long coke - short coking coal arbitrage [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices have all declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3,280 yuan/ton to 3,260 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price dropped from 3,123 yuan/ton to 3,079 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slabs have changed. The profits of hot - rolled coils and rebar in different regions have also decreased. For example, the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 7 [1] Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal production decreased by 1.0% to 232.3 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 3.1% to 855.7 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.5% to 1,365.6 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 15.1% to 10.2 tons, while the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.7% to 864.2 tons [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore powders has decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread has increased by 25.0% to 22.5 yuan/ton [4] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port remained unchanged, while the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swaps and the Platts 62% Fe index decreased by 1.0% and 1.3% respectively [4] Supply and Demand Indicators - The weekly global iron ore shipments increased by 1.4% to 3,368.6 tons, and the 45 - port arrivals decreased by 8.1% to 2,480.5 tons. The demand side shows a decline in various production indicators [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port iron ore inventory increased by 0.3% to 15,348.98 tons, and the 247 - steel mill imported ore inventory increased by 0.5% to 8,984.7 tons [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices declined. For example, the 01 contract price dropped from 1,537 yuan/ton to 1,514 yuan/ton, and the coking profit decreased by 11 [6] Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices also declined. The 01 contract price dropped from 984 yuan/ton to 1,003 yuan/ton, and the coal mine profit decreased by 16 [6] Supply and Demand - Coke production increased by 1.2% to 64.5 tons (weekly), and the production of sample coal mines decreased by 0.3% to 853.4 tons (weekly). The demand side shows a decline in hot metal production [6] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory in coking plants increased by 6.5% to 76.4 tons, and coking coal inventory in coking plants decreased by 0.1% to 1,009.2 tons [6]